Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield

27th0–58th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Central Cordoba de Santiago		Velez Sarsfield
12	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	9
4	Corners	2
8	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	0
1	Red cards	1
0	Offsides	1
370	Passes	469
45%	Possession %	55%
0.65	xG	3.30

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Velez Sarsfield 43%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.26

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Central Cordoba de Santiago -0.25

3.00Bet365 · fair 2.85 · qualifies at 2.93+ · 0.66u

Why this price?

Back Central Cordoba de Santiago -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — Central Cordoba de Santiago must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.85. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 5.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.66 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.93, Velez Sarsfield 1.26.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 1.5	65.1%	1.54	1.44 BetVictor	69.4%	-4.4
Match result	Central Cordoba de Santiago	26.7%	3.74	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+1.7
Match result	Draw	30.0%	3.34	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+0.5
Match result	Velez Sarsfield	43.3%	2.31	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.9%	2.86	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.6%	2.66	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.4%	1.60	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.0%	5.56	4.33 BetVictor	23.1%	-5.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.0%	1.22	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.2%	2.27	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.8%	1.79	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	+3.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Velez Sarsfield favoured against Central Cordoba de Santiago

Our model makes Central Cordoba de Santiago 27% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 30% and Velez Sarsfield at 43%. The goal projection is 0.93 for Central Cordoba de Santiago against 1.26 for Velez Sarsfield — a clear edge to Velez Sarsfield on expected output. A combined 2.20 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 13%; 0-0 12%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Central Cordoba de Santiago and Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago		Velez Sarsfield
32	Played	33
6-9-17	W-D-L	14-14-5
0.84	Pts / game	1.70
0.72	Goals for / game	1.30
1.47	Goals against / game	0.91
34%	Over 2.5	30%
38%	BTTS	52%
25%	Clean sheets	36%
50%	Failed to score	18%
5-4-7	Home record	9-6-2
1-5-10	Away record	5-8-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Central Cordoba de Santiago · Velez Sarsfield

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	15.7
3.2	Shots on target	5.6
4.3	Corners	5.0
2.17	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	9.9
44	Possession %	57
1.10	xG	1.44
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	12.7
6.0	Shots on target	4.3
5.8	Corners	4.1
1.17	Cards	2.57
10.5	Fouls	10.4
56	Possession %	43
2.17	xG	1.20
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Central Cordoba de Santiago	Metric	Velez Sarsfield
1.20	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.97 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.03
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
19.00 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
7.20 (better)	Corners	5.20
48.8	Possession %	53.0 (better)
376	Passes	458 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	10.60
1.40 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins: 0
Draws: 0
Velez Sarsfield wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 0%

Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez Sarsfield0–52026-10-26
Velez Sarsfield v Central Cordoba de Santiago1–02026-04-14

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5