Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P.

16th3–111th

22:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Union Santa Fe		Estudiantes L.P.
15	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	5
15	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
257	Passes	469
36%	Possession %	64%
2.01	xG	0.55

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Estudiantes L.P. 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.43

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Estudiantes L.P.

2.80Betano · fair 2.59 · qualifies at 2.67+ · 1.12u

Why this price?

Back Estudiantes L.P. to win at 2.80 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.59. The offered 2.80 implies only 36%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.12 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.03, Estudiantes L.P. 1.43.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

2.50Bet365 · fair 2.36 · qualifies at 2.46+ · 0.98u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 2.50 with Bet365 — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.36. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 5.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.98 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.03, Estudiantes L.P. 1.43.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Union Santa Fe	26.6%	3.76	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	-9.1
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.59	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-3.4
Match result	Estudiantes L.P.	45.5%	2.20	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+14.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.0%	1.41	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.0%	3.45	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.5%	2.25	2.27 Betano	44.1%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.5%	1.80	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.3%	4.28	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+0.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.7%	1.30	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.5%	2.02	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.5%	1.98	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Estudiantes L.P. favoured against Union Santa Fe

Our model makes Union Santa Fe 27% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 28% and Estudiantes L.P. at 46%. The goal projection is 1.03 for Union Santa Fe against 1.43 for Estudiantes L.P. — a clear edge to Estudiantes L.P. on expected output. A combined 2.46 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Union Santa Fe and Estudiantes L.P.
Union Santa Fe		Estudiantes L.P.
34	Played	33
12-9-13	W-D-L	13-8-12
1.32	Pts / game	1.42
1.47	Goals for / game	1.21
1.38	Goals against / game	0.91
56%	Over 2.5	39%
62%	BTTS	33%
18%	Clean sheets	39%
26%	Failed to score	39%
8-4-4	Home record	9-3-5
4-5-9	Away record	4-5-7
W1	Streak	D2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Union Santa Fe · Estudiantes L.P.

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	15.3
4.7	Shots on target	4.6
4.2	Corners	5.1
3.17	Cards	2.14
14.3	Fouls	11.1
45	Possession %	61
1.66	xG	1.28
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	12.1
4.5	Shots on target	5.1
3.2	Corners	4.1
2.50	Cards	2.14
10.0	Fouls	14.7
55	Possession %	39
0.88	xG	1.65
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Union Santa Fe	Metric	Estudiantes L.P.
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.36	Expected goals (xG)	1.52 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
15.40	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	4.50 (better)
45.6	Possession %	55.0 (better)
339	Passes	431 (better)
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	12.75
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.33
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Union Santa Fe wins: 2
Draws: 0
Estudiantes L.P. wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P.3–12026-10-26
Estudiantes L.P. v Union Santa Fe2–12026-04-11
Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P.1–02025-07-15

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5