Instituto Cordoba v Deportivo Riestra

9th1–028th

00:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Instituto Cordoba		Deportivo Riestra
18	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	2
13	Corners	1
9	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
433	Passes	155
77%	Possession %	23%
1.93	xG	0.19

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 32%
Over 3.5: 14%
Both score: 36%

Model pick: Instituto Cordoba 52%
Likely score: 1-0 18%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 0.66

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Instituto Cordoba -0.25

1.65Bet365 · fair 1.51 · qualifies at 1.56+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Instituto Cordoba -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Instituto Cordoba must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.51. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.31, Deportivo Riestra 0.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Instituto Cordoba	51.8%	1.93	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	+1.8
Match result	Draw	30.0%	3.33	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-0.7
Match result	Deportivo Riestra	18.1%	5.51	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	59.2%	1.69	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	40.8%	2.45	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	31.6%	3.17	2.92 Betano	34.2%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	68.4%	1.46	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	13.8%	7.25	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	86.2%	1.16	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+0.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	35.9%	2.79	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	64.1%	1.56	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Instituto Cordoba favoured against Deportivo Riestra

Our model makes Instituto Cordoba 52% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 30% and Deportivo Riestra at 18%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Instituto Cordoba against 0.66 for Deportivo Riestra — a substantial edge to Instituto Cordoba on expected output. A combined 1.97 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 32% and both teams to score at 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 18%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 18%; 0-0 15%; 1-1 13%; 2-0 12%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Instituto Cordoba and Deportivo Riestra
Instituto Cordoba		Deportivo Riestra
32	Played	32
16-7-9	W-D-L	3-14-15
1.72	Pts / game	0.72
1.34	Goals for / game	0.50
1.00	Goals against / game	0.97
41%	Over 2.5	16%
47%	BTTS	28%
34%	Clean sheets	31%
22%	Failed to score	63%
10-3-3	Home record	3-8-5
6-4-6	Away record	0-6-10
D2	Streak	L3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Instituto Cordoba · Deportivo Riestra

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	11.3
4.2	Shots on target	3.5
5.3	Corners	3.5
2.50	Cards	2.50
11.7	Fouls	14.7
45	Possession %	37
1.14	xG	0.97
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	11.8
3.7	Shots on target	4.0
3.5	Corners	5.7
2.83	Cards	2.00
12.8	Fouls	10.7
55	Possession %	63
1.35	xG	1.10
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Instituto Cordoba	Metric	Deportivo Riestra
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
0.83	Expected goals (xG)	1.20 (better)
	Big chances
4.60 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
12.40	Total shots	12.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40 (better)	Corners	2.50
40.4 (better)	Possession %	35.3
295 (better)	Passes	265
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	14.25
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Instituto Cordoba wins: 2
Draws: 0
Deportivo Riestra wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Instituto Cordoba v Deportivo Riestra1–02026-10-27
Deportivo Riestra v Instituto Cordoba0–12026-04-11
Deportivo Riestra v Instituto Cordoba1–02025-10-20

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5