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Liga Profesional Argentina predictions: Clausura, round 14 (23–27 October 2026)

Every Liga Profesional Argentina match in Clausura, round 14 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 14: 15 matches, played across 23–27 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Instituto Cordoba, 52% to beat Deportivo Riestra at home; the most evenly balanced game is Talleres Cordoba v Defensa Y Justicia (Talleres Cordoba 35%, draw 30%, Defensa Y Justicia 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin, at 2.92; the tightest looks San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys, at 1.72.

Going into the round, Argentinos JRS lead on 59 points, one point clear of Belgrano Cordoba, with Rosario Central third on 57. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (16), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.15 goals a game over 450 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Gimnasia M. v PlatenseFri 23 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Gimnasia M. 46%, the draw 28% and Platense 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Gimnasia M. to win at 46%. Gimnasia M. are 18th on 39 points from 29; Platense are 26th on 27 points from 29. Gimnasia M. have won one of their last five; Platense are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento JuninFri 23 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Gimnasia L.P. 47%, the draw 25% and Sarmiento Junin 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 56%. Gimnasia L.P. are 8th on 51 points from 31; Sarmiento Junin are 16th on 40 points from 29. Gimnasia L.P. are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Sarmiento Junin have won one of their last five. Gimnasia L.P. have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Tigre v Atletico TucumanSat 24 Oct, 01:15

Our model makes Tigre 42%, the draw 32% and Atletico Tucuman 26%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 1.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 60%. Tigre are 23rd on 33 points from 29; Atletico Tucuman are 25th on 28 points from 29. Tigre are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Atletico Tucuman are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Banfield v LanusSat 24 Oct, 18:45

Our model makes Banfield 32%, the draw 30% and Lanus 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Banfield are 24th on 31 points from 29; Lanus are 10th on 47 points from 30. Banfield have won one of their last five; Lanus are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Banfield wins, draws and Lanus wins.

Talleres Cordoba v Defensa Y JusticiaSat 24 Oct, 21:00

Our model makes Talleres Cordoba 35%, the draw 30% and Defensa Y Justicia 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Talleres Cordoba are 21st on 35 points from 30; Defensa Y Justicia are 13th on 43 points from 29. Talleres Cordoba have won one of their last five; Defensa Y Justicia have won three of their last five.

San Lorenzo v Newells Old BoysSat 24 Oct, 23:15

Our model makes San Lorenzo 36%, the draw 35% and Newells Old Boys 29%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (18%), 1.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 66%. San Lorenzo are 17th on 40 points from 30; Newells Old Boys are 22nd on 35 points from 29. San Lorenzo have won two of their last five; Newells Old Boys have won two of their last five.

Rosario Central v HuracanSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes Rosario Central 47%, the draw 32% and Huracan 21%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (17%), 1.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 64%. Rosario Central are 3rd on 57 points from 32; Huracan are 12th on 43 points from 31. Rosario Central are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Huracan have won three of their last five.

Aldosivi v Belgrano CordobaSun 25 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Aldosivi 21%, the draw 30% and Belgrano Cordoba 48%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (16%), 2.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is Belgrano Cordoba to win at 48%. Aldosivi are 29th on 16 points from 29; Belgrano Cordoba are 2nd on 58 points from 33. Aldosivi have won one of their last five; Belgrano Cordoba have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Independiente v Boca JuniorsSun 25 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Independiente 29%, the draw 29% and Boca Juniors 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Independiente are 14th on 43 points from 30; Boca Juniors are 5th on 55 points from 30. Independiente have won one of their last five; Boca Juniors are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

River Plate v Racing ClubSun 25 Oct, 22:15

Our model makes River Plate 48%, the draw 28% and Racing Club 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is River Plate to win at 48%. River Plate are 4th on 56 points from 33; Racing Club are 20th on 37 points from 31. River Plate have won three of their last five; Racing Club have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between River Plate wins, draws and Racing Club wins.

Barracas Central v Estudiantes de Rio CuartoMon 26 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Barracas Central 49%, the draw 33% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (20%), 1.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 31%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 69%. Barracas Central are 15th on 40 points from 29; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are 30th on 14 points from 29. Barracas Central have won two of their last five; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have won one of their last five.

Central Cordoba de Santiago v Velez SarsfieldMon 26 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%, the draw 30% and Velez Sarsfield 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 56%. Central Cordoba de Santiago are 27th on 26 points from 29; Velez Sarsfield are 7th on 52 points from 30. Central Cordoba de Santiago are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Velez Sarsfield have won two of their last five.

Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P.Mon 26 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Union Santa Fe 27%, the draw 28% and Estudiantes L.P. 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.46 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Estudiantes L.P. to win at 46%. Union Santa Fe are 19th on 38 points from 31; Estudiantes L.P. are 11th on 45 points from 30. Union Santa Fe are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Estudiantes L.P. have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Union Santa Fe wins, draws and Estudiantes L.P. wins.

Instituto Cordoba v Deportivo RiestraTue 27 Oct, 00:15

Our model makes Instituto Cordoba 52%, the draw 30% and Deportivo Riestra 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (18%), 1.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 64%. Instituto Cordoba are 9th on 50 points from 29; Deportivo Riestra are 28th on 23 points from 29. Instituto Cordoba are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Deportivo Riestra are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Instituto Cordoba wins, draws and Deportivo Riestra wins.

Argentinos JRS v Independ. RivadaviaTue 27 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Argentinos JRS 44%, the draw 28% and Independ. Rivadavia 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Argentinos JRS to win at 44%. Argentinos JRS are 1st on 59 points from 32; Independ. Rivadavia are 6th on 53 points from 30. Argentinos JRS have won two of their last five; Independ. Rivadavia have won two of their last five. Independ. Rivadavia have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published six picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.