Platense v Central Cordoba de Santiago

24th2–027th

22:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Platense		Central Cordoba de Santiago
16	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
14	Corners	5
13	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
427	Passes	295
59%	Possession %	41%
1.24	xG	0.94

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Platense 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.98

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Platense -0.5

1.82Bet365 · fair 1.65 · qualifies at 1.70+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Platense -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.82 with Bet365 — Platense must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.65. The offered 1.82 implies only 55%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Platense 1.35, Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.98.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Platense	44.5%	2.25	1.85 Betfair	54.1%	-9.5
Match result	Draw	28.8%	3.47	4.35 Betano	23.0%	+5.8
Match result	Central Cordoba de Santiago	26.6%	3.75	8.50 Bet365	11.8%	+14.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.3%	1.47	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.7%	3.15	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.2%	2.42	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.8%	1.70	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.7%	4.83	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.3%	1.26	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.0%	2.13	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.0%	1.89	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Platense favoured against Central Cordoba de Santiago

Our model makes Platense 45% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 29% and Central Cordoba de Santiago at 27%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Platense against 0.98 for Central Cordoba de Santiago — a clear edge to Platense on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Platense and Central Cordoba de Santiago
Platense		Central Cordoba de Santiago
32	Played	32
8-12-12	W-D-L	6-9-17
1.13	Pts / game	0.84
0.88	Goals for / game	0.72
1.09	Goals against / game	1.47
31%	Over 2.5	34%
44%	BTTS	38%
28%	Clean sheets	25%
44%	Failed to score	50%
3-6-7	Home record	5-4-7
5-6-5	Away record	1-5-10
W3	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Platense · Central Cordoba de Santiago

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	11.3
4.9	Shots on target	3.2
8.0	Corners	4.3
2.14	Cards	2.17
10.9	Fouls	11.3
55	Possession %	44
1.68	xG	1.10
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.7	Shots	17.0
3.3	Shots on target	6.0
3.4	Corners	5.8
1.29	Cards	1.17
10.9	Fouls	10.5
45	Possession %	56
0.97	xG	2.17
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Platense	Metric	Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.20	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.98 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.26
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
17.75 (better)	Total shots	13.80
	Touches in opp. box
8.25 (better)	Corners	5.20
52.5 (better)	Possession %	45.8
411 (better)	Passes	343
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	10.00
2.25	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Platense wins: 1
Draws: 0
Central Cordoba de Santiago wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Platense v Central Cordoba de Santiago2–02026-11-02
Central Cordoba de Santiago v Platense4–32026-04-20

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5