Liga Profesional Argentina · Review

Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura, round 13 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga Profesional Argentina result from Clausura, round 13 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 20 Oct 2026, updated 21 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 13 (17–20 October 2026), is complete: 13 matches, 33 goals (2.54 a game), four home wins, four draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the 13 and both teams scored in nine.

The result the model rated least likely was San Lorenzo's win in Estudiantes L.P. v San Lorenzo (1–2), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was Boca Juniors's win in Boca Juniors v Talleres Cordoba (2–1), at 58%.

After the round, Argentinos JRS lead on 59 points, one point clear of Belgrano Cordoba, with Rosario Central third on 57. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (16), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

Match by match

Boca Juniors 2–1 Talleres CordobaSat 17 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Boca Juniors 58%, the draw 26% and Talleres Cordoba 16%, so Boca Juniors winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.04–0.45: Boca Juniors created the better chances. The headline call, Boca Juniors to win at 58%, came in.

Banfield 0–1 Argentinos JRSSat 17 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Banfield 28%, the draw 29% and Argentinos JRS 43%, so Argentinos JRS winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.83–2.04: Argentinos JRS created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

Independ. Rivadavia 2–2 TigreSat 17 Oct, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Independ. Rivadavia 48%, the draw 28% and Tigre 24%, with Independ. Rivadavia favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.10–1.13: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Independ. Rivadavia to win at 48%, did not come in.

Platense 0–1 LanusSat 17 Oct, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Platense 29%, the draw 32% and Lanus 39%, so Lanus winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.72–1.14: Platense created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 58%, came in.

Atletico Tucuman 2–3 Rosario CentralSun 18 Oct, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Tucuman 27%, the draw 33% and Rosario Central 40%, so Rosario Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 1.42–0.76: Atletico Tucuman created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 62%, did not come in.

Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia M.Sun 18 Oct, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Velez Sarsfield 48%, the draw 28% and Gimnasia M. 24%, so Velez Sarsfield winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.55–0.75: Velez Sarsfield created the better chances. The headline call, Velez Sarsfield to win at 48%, came in. Pick published: Velez Sarsfield -0.5 at 1.75 — won.

Racing Club 1–1 IndependienteSun 18 Oct, 18:45

Before kick-off the model had Racing Club 41%, the draw 28% and Independiente 31%, with Racing Club favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.27–1.09: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Racing Club to win at 41%, did not come in.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2–1 AldosiviSun 18 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 29%, the draw 33% and Aldosivi 38%, with Aldosivi favoured; it put Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 2.20–1.29: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 60%, did not come in.

Estudiantes L.P. 1–2 San LorenzoSun 18 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Estudiantes L.P. 48%, the draw 34% and San Lorenzo 18%, with Estudiantes L.P. favoured; it put San Lorenzo winning at 18%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.02–0.94: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 70%, did not come in.

Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 River PlateMon 19 Oct, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Belgrano Cordoba 37%, the draw 33% and River Plate 30%, with Belgrano Cordoba favoured; it put River Plate winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 1.08–1.16: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 61%, came in. Pick published: River Plate +0.25 at 1.88 — won.

Newells Old Boys 2–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoMon 19 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Newells Old Boys 42%, the draw 31% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%, so Newells Old Boys winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.96–0.42: Newells Old Boys created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: Newells Old Boys -0.5 at 1.93 — won.

Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas CentralMon 19 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Sarmiento Junin 41%, the draw 30% and Barracas Central 29%, with Sarmiento Junin favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.81–2.76: Barracas Central created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 55%, did not come in. Pick published: Sarmiento Junin -0.25 at 1.95 — half lost.

Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa FeTue 20 Oct, 01:15

Before kick-off the model had Deportivo Riestra 34%, the draw 30% and Union Santa Fe 36%, with Union Santa Fe favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.88–0.74: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, came in. Pick published: Union Santa Fe at 3.35 (free pick) — lost.

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.15 goals a game over 450 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.