Boca Juniors v Defensa Y Justicia

3rd1–013th

20:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Boca Juniors		Defensa Y Justicia
22	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
10	Corners	2
7	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
519	Passes	321
62%	Possession %	38%
1.78	xG	0.44

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Boca Juniors 53%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 0.90

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Boca Juniors	53.2%	1.88	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-12.6
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.81	4.75 Betano	21.1%	+5.2
Match result	Defensa Y Justicia	20.6%	4.86	9.50 Bet365	10.5%	+10.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.7%	1.39	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-7.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.3%	3.54	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.5%	2.20	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.5%	1.83	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.1%	4.15	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.9%	1.32	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.8%	2.09	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.2%	1.92	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Boca Juniors favoured against Defensa Y Justicia

Our model makes Boca Juniors 53% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 26% and Defensa Y Justicia at 21%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Boca Juniors against 0.90 for Defensa Y Justicia — a substantial edge to Boca Juniors on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors		Defensa Y Justicia
33	Played	32
17-13-3	W-D-L	12-11-9
1.94	Pts / game	1.47
1.42	Goals for / game	1.22
0.73	Goals against / game	1.13
36%	Over 2.5	41%
48%	BTTS	53%
48%	Clean sheets	28%
9%	Failed to score	28%
10-7-0	Home record	6-7-3
7-6-3	Away record	6-4-6
W4	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Boca Juniors · Defensa Y Justicia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.1	Shots	16.2
5.3	Shots on target	5.3
5.7	Corners	3.7
3.00	Cards	2.17
10.7	Fouls	11.7
66	Possession %	51
1.48	xG	1.22
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.6	Shots	17.7
1.9	Shots on target	5.5
2.6	Corners	7.3
3.43	Cards	2.83
12.9	Fouls	11.0
34	Possession %	49
0.67	xG	1.41
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Boca Juniors	Metric	Defensa Y Justicia
1.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.29	Expected goals (xG)	1.85 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
11.80	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.20
57.4 (better)	Possession %	54.6
501 (better)	Passes	450
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	13.40
1.40 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Boca Juniors wins: 2
Draws: 0
Defensa Y Justicia wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Boca Juniors v Defensa Y Justicia1–02026-11-07
Defensa Y Justicia v Boca Juniors0–42026-04-23
Defensa Y Justicia v Boca Juniors2–12025-09-27

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5