Banfield v Atletico Tucuman

25th2–226th

01:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Banfield		Atletico Tucuman
15	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	4
9	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
444	Passes	311
60%	Possession %	40%
0.73	xG	0.43

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Banfield 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.11

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Banfield	37.9%	2.64	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.40	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-1.9
Match result	Atletico Tucuman	32.7%	3.06	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.3%	1.46	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.7%	3.16	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.3%	2.42	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.7%	1.70	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.8%	4.82	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.2%	1.26	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.0%	2.08	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.0%	1.92	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Banfield v Atletico Tucuman: too close to call

Our model makes Banfield 38% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 29% and Atletico Tucuman at 33%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Banfield against 1.11 for Atletico Tucuman — a slight edge to Banfield on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Banfield and Atletico Tucuman
Banfield		Atletico Tucuman
32	Played	32
8-9-15	W-D-L	7-11-14
1.03	Pts / game	1.00
1.09	Goals for / game	0.97
1.38	Goals against / game	1.16
47%	Over 2.5	47%
59%	BTTS	53%
19%	Clean sheets	38%
28%	Failed to score	28%
5-6-5	Home record	2-8-6
3-3-10	Away record	5-3-8
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Banfield · Atletico Tucuman

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	10.9
2.7	Shots on target	3.7
4.8	Corners	4.7
2.00	Cards	2.43
11.5	Fouls	12.4
42	Possession %	39
0.70	xG	0.87
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5	Shots	15.1
4.0	Shots on target	4.9
5.5	Corners	6.0
2.67	Cards	2.29
9.8	Fouls	8.6
58	Possession %	61
1.29	xG	1.00
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Banfield	Metric	Atletico Tucuman
1.20	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.83	Expected goals (xG)	0.85 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
13.60 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	4.25 (better)
36.6 (better)	Possession %	36.3
283 (better)	Passes	260
	Tackles
13.80	Fouls	13.25 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Banfield wins: 0
Draws: 2
Atletico Tucuman wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Banfield v Atletico Tucuman2–22026-11-07
Atletico Tucuman v Banfield1–12026-04-26

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5