Rosario Central v 
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Match statistics
| Rosario Central | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 1 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 411 | Passes | 252 |
| 63% | Possession % | 37% |
| 1.13 | xG | 0.09 |
- Over 1.5
- 69%
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 37%
- Model pick
- Rosario Central 67%
- Likely score
- 1-0 16%
- Expected goals
- 1.80 – 0.57
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Rosario Central | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.27 Bet365 | 78.7% | -12.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 7.50 Betfair | 13.3% | +9.4 |
| Match result | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 10.6% | 9.40 | 20.00 Betano | 5.0% | +5.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | -12.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 31.1% | 3.21 | 4.80 Betfair | 20.8% | +10.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | -16.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +13.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 21.4% | 4.68 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | -15.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | +11.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -1.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rosario Central favoured against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Our model makes Rosario Central 67% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 23% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 11%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Rosario Central against 0.57 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — a commanding edge to Rosario Central on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Rosario Central is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 16%
- 2-0 15%
- 1-1 10%
- 0-0 10%
- 3-0 9%
This season
| Rosario Central | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Played | 32 |
| 19-9-7 | W-D-L | 3-5-24 |
| 1.89 | Pts / game | 0.44 |
| 1.43 | Goals for / game | 0.47 |
| 0.89 | Goals against / game | 1.47 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 38% |
| 57% | BTTS | 34% |
| 34% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 59% |
| 10-5-3 | Home record | 3-3-10 |
| 9-4-4 | Away record | 0-2-14 |
| W5 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rosario Central · Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.7 | Shots | 10.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 2.6 |
| 7.7 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.86 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.80 | xG | 0.95 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 10.3 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 3.29 | Cards | 1.29 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 0.66 | xG | 1.35 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Rosario Central | Metric | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.76 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Shots on target | 2.40 |
| 16.80 (better) | Total shots | 11.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 5.00 |
| 61.8 (better) | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 482 (better) | Passes | 317 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.40 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.67 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Rosario Central wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Rosario Central v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto2–02026-11-07
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Rosario Central1–22026-04-24
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | +19 | 66 | Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | +12 | 65 | Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 33 | 17 | 13 | 3 | +23 | 64 | Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | River Plate | 36 | 19 | 5 | 12 | +19 | 62 | River Plate won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 60 | Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Belgrano Cordoba | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | +10 | 59 | Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Independ. Rivadavia | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 57 | Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Velez Sarsfield | 33 | 14 | 14 | 5 | +13 | 56 | Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | +11 | 55 | Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lanus | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | +8 | 50 | Lanus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | +10 | 47 | Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Barracas Central | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +4 | 47 | Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Defensa Y Justicia | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +3 | 47 | Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Independiente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 47 | Independiente won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Huracan | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | +2 | 46 | Huracan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | +3 | 45 | Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | -7 | 42 | San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gimnasia M. | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 41 | Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Racing Club | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -5 | 40 | Racing Club won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sarmiento Junin | 32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | -8 | 40 | Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Tigre | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | +3 | 39 | Tigre won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Talleres Cordoba | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 39 | Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Newells Old Boys | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | -9 | 38 | Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 36 | Platense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 25 | Banfield | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -9 | 33 | Banfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 26 | Atletico Tucuman | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -6 | 32 | Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5 |
| 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -24 | 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5 |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 32 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -15 | 23 | Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5 |
| 29 | Aldosivi | 32 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -23 | 19 | Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5 |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 32 | 3 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 14 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5 |