San Lorenzo v Platense

17th0–224th

22:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
San Lorenzo		Platense
13	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	5
3	Corners	3
15	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
250	Passes	344
42%	Possession %	58%
0.77	xG	1.39

Over 1.5: 56%
Over 2.5: 29%
Over 3.5: 12%
Both score: 37%

Model pick: San Lorenzo 39%
Likely score: 0-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.03 – 0.83

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

San Lorenzo -0.25

2.15Bet365 · fair 1.97 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back San Lorenzo -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — San Lorenzo must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 54%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: San Lorenzo 1.03, Platense 0.83.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	San Lorenzo	38.9%	2.57	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	+1.9
Match result	Draw	33.3%	3.00	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+0.0
Match result	Platense	27.8%	3.60	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	56.1%	1.78	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-8.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	43.9%	2.28	2.52 Betano	39.7%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	28.5%	3.51	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	71.5%	1.40	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	11.8%	8.45	6.00 BetVictor	16.7%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	88.2%	1.13	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	36.9%	2.71	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	63.1%	1.58	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	+4.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

San Lorenzo favoured against Platense

Our model makes San Lorenzo 39% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 33% and Platense at 28%. The goal projection is 1.03 for San Lorenzo against 0.83 for Platense — a slight edge to San Lorenzo on expected output. A combined 1.86 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 29% and both teams to score at 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 16%; 1-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for San Lorenzo and Platense
San Lorenzo		Platense
33	Played	32
10-12-11	W-D-L	8-12-12
1.27	Pts / game	1.13
0.73	Goals for / game	0.88
0.94	Goals against / game	1.09
18%	Over 2.5	31%
30%	BTTS	44%
45%	Clean sheets	28%
42%	Failed to score	44%
7-3-6	Home record	3-6-7
3-9-5	Away record	5-6-5
L1	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. San Lorenzo · Platense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6	Shots	14.0
3.9	Shots on target	4.9
4.1	Corners	8.0
3.00	Cards	2.14
14.6	Fouls	10.9
43	Possession %	55
0.95	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	9.7
4.4	Shots on target	3.3
4.9	Corners	3.4
3.14	Cards	1.29
13.9	Fouls	10.9
57	Possession %	45
1.22	xG	0.97
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San Lorenzo	Metric	Platense
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	1.83 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	5.25 (better)
12.80	Total shots	17.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	8.25 (better)
46.4	Possession %	52.8 (better)
335	Passes	411 (better)
	Tackles
14.40	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

San Lorenzo wins: 1
Draws: 0
Platense wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

San Lorenzo v Platense0–22026-11-06
Platense v San Lorenzo0–12026-04-25
Platense v San Lorenzo2–12025-08-16

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5