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UEFA Nations League predictions: League A, round 6 (15–17 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League A, round 6 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 10 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League A, round 6: eight matches, played across 15–17 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is France, 59% to beat Türkiye at home; the most evenly balanced game is Germany v Netherlands (Germany 39%, draw 27%, Netherlands 34%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is France v Türkiye, at 3.24; the tightest looks Greece v Serbia, at 2.33.

Match by match

Belgium v ItalySun 15 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Belgium 44%, the draw 27% and Italy 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Belgium to win at 44%. Belgium have won two of their last four; Italy have won two of their last four.

Croatia v CzechiaSun 15 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Croatia 42%, the draw 25% and Czechia 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Croatia have won one of their last four; Czechia have lost all of their last four. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

France v TürkiyeSun 15 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes France 59%, the draw 22% and Türkiye 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is France to win at 59%. France are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Türkiye have lost all of their last four.

Spain v EnglandSun 15 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Spain 56%, the draw 23% and England 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Spain to win at 56%. Spain have won all of their last four; England have won three of their last four.

Germany v NetherlandsMon 16 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Germany 39%, the draw 27% and Netherlands 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Germany to win at 39%. Germany have won one of their last four; Netherlands are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws).

Greece v SerbiaMon 16 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Greece 51%, the draw 28% and Serbia 21%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is Greece to win at 51%. Greece are unbeaten in four (two wins, two draws); Serbia have lost all of their last four.

Denmark v NorwayTue 17 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Denmark 32%, the draw 25% and Norway 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Denmark have won two of their last four; Norway have won one of their last four.

Wales v PortugalTue 17 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Wales 17%, the draw 26% and Portugal 58%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (15%), 2.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is Portugal to win at 58%. Wales have won one of their last four; Portugal have won all of their last four.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.