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UEFA Nations League predictions: League D, round 6 (16 November 2026)

Every UEFA Nations League match in League D, round 6 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published · Written from the site’s own data

UEFA Nations League, League D, round 6: two matches, played on 16 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Lithuania, 57% to beat Liechtenstein at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gibraltar v Malta (Gibraltar 32%, draw 31%, Malta 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Lithuania v Liechtenstein, at 2.15; the tightest looks Gibraltar v Malta, at 2.11.

Match by match

Lithuania v LiechtensteinMon 16 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Lithuania 57%, the draw 27% and Liechtenstein 16%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (17%), 2.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%. The headline call is Lithuania to win at 57%. Lithuania have won one of their last three.

Gibraltar v MaltaMon 16 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Gibraltar 32%, the draw 31% and Malta 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.11 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 65%. Malta are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw).

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.

The fixtures now

The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.

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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.