Belgian Pro League · Review

Belgian Pro League matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Belgian Pro League result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Belgian Pro League, matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 25 goals (2.78 a game), five home wins, two draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Club Brugge KV v Anderlecht (1–1), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was Gent's win in Gent v Kortrijk (1–0), at 70%.

After the round, Union St. Gilloise lead on 29 points, one point clear of Club Brugge KV, with Gent third on 28. The bottom three are Cercle Brugge (9), RAAL La Louvière (7), Kortrijk (4).

Match by match

Standard Liege 3–0 SK BeverenFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Standard Liege 53%, the draw 23% and SK Beveren 24%, so Standard Liege winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.11–0.57: Standard Liege created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, did not come in.

KVC Westerlo 1–5 CharleroiSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had KVC Westerlo 40%, the draw 24% and Charleroi 35%, with KVC Westerlo favoured; it put Charleroi winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–2.93: Charleroi created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

OH Leuven 2–0 KV MechelenSat 7 Nov, 17:15

Before kick-off the model had OH Leuven 41%, the draw 27% and KV Mechelen 32%, so OH Leuven winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.39–0.81: OH Leuven created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, did not come in.

Antwerp 2–2 Lommel UnitedSat 7 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Antwerp 32%, the draw 27% and Lommel United 42%, with Lommel United favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.02–2.20: Antwerp created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in.

RAAL La Louvière 0–1 Cercle BruggeSat 7 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had RAAL La Louvière 39%, the draw 24% and Cercle Brugge 37%, with RAAL La Louvière favoured; it put Cercle Brugge winning at 37%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.17–1.32: RAAL La Louvière created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, did not come in. Pick published: Cercle Brugge +0.25 at 2.10 — won.

Club Brugge KV 1–1 AnderlechtSun 8 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Club Brugge KV 66%, the draw 18% and Anderlecht 16%, with Club Brugge KV favoured; it put the draw at 18%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.51–0.74: Club Brugge KV created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in. Pick published: Club Brugge KV -0.5 at 1.52 — lost.

Gent 1–0 KortrijkSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Gent 70%, the draw 20% and Kortrijk 10%, so Gent winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 1.58–1.29: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Gent to win at 70%, came in.

Union St. Gilloise 1–0 GenkSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Union St. Gilloise 64%, the draw 21% and Genk 15%, so Union St. Gilloise winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 1.40–0.54: Union St. Gilloise created the better chances. The headline call, Union St. Gilloise to win at 64%, came in.

St. Truiden 4–1 Zulte WaregemSun 8 Nov, 18:15

Before kick-off the model had St. Truiden 53%, the draw 23% and Zulte Waregem 24%, so St. Truiden winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.05–1.24: St. Truiden created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in. Pick published: St. Truiden -0.5 at 1.78 — won.

The numbers this season

Belgian Pro League has averaged 3.19 goals a game over 99 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 52% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.