Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5WDLLL7th3–0SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5LLDLL13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Standard Liege
SK Beveren
15
Shots
8
5
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
5
5
Fouls
17
0
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
3
Offsides
2
623
Passes
376
62%
Possession %
38%
2.11
xG
0.57
53%
23%
24%
1 · Standard LiegeXSK Beveren · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Standard Liege 53%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.26
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Standard Liege
52.7%
1.90
1.95 Dafabet
51.3%
+1.4
Match result
Draw
23.1%
4.33
3.90 Betano
25.6%
-2.5
Match result
SK Beveren
24.2%
4.13
4.20 Dafabet
23.8%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.20
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.7%
5.98
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.9%
1.62
1.65 Bet365
60.6%
+1.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.1%
2.62
2.40 Betano
41.7%
-3.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.6%
2.53
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
+1.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.4%
1.66
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.7%
1.62
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-0.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.3%
2.61
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
-3.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Standard Liege favoured against SK Beveren
Our model makes Standard Liege 53% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 23% and SK Beveren at 24%. The goal projection is 1.94 for Standard Liege against 1.26 for SK Beveren — a substantial edge to Standard Liege on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Standard Liege
Metric
SK Beveren
0.80
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.46 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.23
—
Big chances *
—
2.67
Shots on target
3.75 (better)
13.67 (better)
Total shots
10.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.67
Corners
6.00 (better)
44.0
Possession %
52.5 (better)
409
Passes
489 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.33
Fouls
8.50 (better)
0.67 (better)
Offsides
2.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.25
1.00
Red cards
0.50 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Standard Liege v 
SK Beveren