Primeira Liga · Review

Primeira Liga matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Primeira Liga result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: eight matches, 17 goals (2.13 a game), three home wins, one draw and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in three of the eight and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was Nacional's win in Nacional v Academico Viseu (1–0), which it had at 27%; the one it rated most likely was Benfica's win in Estrela v Benfica (2–3), at 78%.

After the round, FC Porto lead on 33 points, five points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 24. The bottom three are Casa Pia (8), Rio Ave (7), Estoril (2).

Match by match

Famalicao 1–0 AroucaFri 6 Nov, 20:45

Before kick-off the model had Famalicao 41%, the draw 27% and Arouca 31%, so Famalicao winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.82–0.40: Famalicao created the better chances. The headline call, Famalicao to win at 41%, came in. Pick published: Arouca at 3.90 — lost.

Alverca 1–1 Casa PiaSat 7 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Alverca 46%, the draw 29% and Casa Pia 25%, with Alverca favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.76–0.97: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, came in.

Sporting CP 1–0 MoreirenseSat 7 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Sporting CP 72%, the draw 17% and Moreirense 10%, so Sporting CP winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.08–0.55: Sporting CP created the better chances. The headline call, Sporting CP to win at 72%, came in.

Estoril v MaritimoSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Postponed.

Nacional 1–0 Academico ViseuSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Nacional 27%, the draw 27% and Academico Viseu 46%, with Academico Viseu favoured; it put Nacional winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.17–0.65: Nacional created the better chances. The headline call, Academico Viseu to win at 46%, did not come in.

Santa Clara 1–2 GIL VicenteSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Santa Clara 40%, the draw 30% and GIL Vicente 30%, with Santa Clara favoured; it put GIL Vicente winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.79–1.21: GIL Vicente created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 62%, did not come in.

Vitória SC 1–2 FC PortoSun 8 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Vitória SC 19%, the draw 27% and FC Porto 55%, so FC Porto winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.74–1.64: FC Porto created the better chances. The headline call, FC Porto to win at 55%, came in.

Estrela 2–3 BenficaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Estrela 9%, the draw 13% and Benfica 78%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-3. Expected goals were 1.35–1.09: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Benfica to win at 78%, came in.

Rio Ave 0–1 SC BragaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Rio Ave 17%, the draw 24% and SC Braga 59%, so SC Braga winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 0-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.26–1.91: SC Braga created the better chances. The headline call, SC Braga to win at 59%, came in.

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.63 goals a game over 98 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.