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Brasileirão Série A predictions: matchweek 35 (14–20 November 2026)

Every Brasileirão Série A match in matchweek 35 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 11 Nov 2026, updated 12 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 35: ten matches, played across 14–20 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Flamengo, 68% to beat Atletico Paranaense at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gremio v Bahia (Gremio 36%, draw 28%, Bahia 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Coritiba v Santos, at 3.31; the tightest looks Sao Paulo v Fluminense, at 2.26.

Going into the round, Flamengo lead on 76 points, three points clear of Palmeiras, with Cruzeiro third on 60. The bottom three are Gremio (37), Remo (29), Chapecoense-sc (21).

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.67 goals a game over 339 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Mirassol v Atletico-MGSat 14 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Mirassol 35%, the draw 29% and Atletico-MG 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Mirassol are 14th on 40 points from 34; Atletico-MG are 7th on 50 points from 34. Mirassol have won two of their last five; Atletico-MG have won two of their last five. Atletico-MG have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Coritiba v SantosWed 18 Nov, 22:30

Our model makes Coritiba 31%, the draw 24% and Santos 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is Santos to win at 45%. Coritiba are 12th on 42 points from 34; Santos are 9th on 47 points from 34. Coritiba have won one of their last five; Santos have won one of their last five.

Remo v Chapecoense-scWed 18 Nov, 23:00

Our model makes Remo 52%, the draw 24% and Chapecoense-sc 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Remo are 19th on 29 points from 34; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 21 points from 33. Remo have won one of their last five; Chapecoense-sc have won one of their last five.

Cruzeiro v PalmeirasWed 18 Nov, 23:30

Our model makes Cruzeiro 27%, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Palmeiras to win at 48%. Cruzeiro are 3rd on 60 points from 34; Palmeiras are 2nd on 73 points from 34. Cruzeiro have won four of their last five; Palmeiras are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Flamengo v Atletico ParanaenseWed 18 Nov, 23:30

Our model makes Flamengo 68%, the draw 19% and Atletico Paranaense 13%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Flamengo to win at 68%. Flamengo are 1st on 76 points from 34; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54 points from 34. Flamengo have won all of their last five; Atletico Paranaense have won one of their last five.

Corinthians v BotafogoThu 19 Nov, 00:30

Our model makes Corinthians 40%, the draw 28% and Botafogo 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.46 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Corinthians are 17th on 37 points from 34; Botafogo are 11th on 42 points from 34. Corinthians have won one of their last five; Botafogo have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

Gremio v BahiaThu 19 Nov, 00:30

Our model makes Gremio 36%, the draw 28% and Bahia 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Gremio to win at 36%. Gremio are 18th on 37 points from 34; Bahia are 6th on 53 points from 34. Gremio have won two of their last five; Bahia have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Vasco DA Gama v InternacionalThu 19 Nov, 22:30

Our model makes Vasco DA Gama 47%, the draw 25% and Internacional 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 56%. Vasco DA Gama are 13th on 41 points from 33; Internacional are 15th on 38 points from 34. Vasco DA Gama have won two of their last five; Internacional have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

Vitoria v RB BragantinoThu 19 Nov, 22:30

Our model makes Vitoria 30%, the draw 27% and RB Bragantino 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is RB Bragantino to win at 43%. Vitoria are 16th on 38 points from 34; RB Bragantino are 8th on 47 points from 34. Vitoria are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); RB Bragantino have won three of their last five. RB Bragantino have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Sao Paulo v FluminenseFri 20 Nov, 00:30

Our model makes Sao Paulo 34%, the draw 30% and Fluminense 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Sao Paulo are 10th on 44 points from 34; Fluminense are 4th on 57 points from 34. Sao Paulo have won two of their last five; Fluminense have won two of their last five. Fluminense have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published eleven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.