Sao Paulo v 
Fluminense
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Fluminense 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.11 – 1.15
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sao Paulo v Fluminense: too close to call
Our model makes Sao Paulo 34% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Fluminense at 36%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Sao Paulo against 1.15 for Fluminense — almost nothing to Fluminense on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 0-0 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Sao Paulo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 12-8-14 | W-D-L | 16-9-9 |
| 1.29 | Pts / game | 1.68 |
| 1.15 | Goals for / game | 1.62 |
| 1.15 | Goals against / game | 1.24 |
| 38% | Over 2.5 | 59% |
| 56% | BTTS | 71% |
| 24% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 10-4-3 | Home record | 12-3-2 |
| 2-4-11 | Away record | 4-6-7 |
| D1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sao Paulo · Fluminense
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.6 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 7.9 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.57 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 14.1 | Fouls | 16.1 |
| 52 | Possession % | 60 |
| 1.37 | xG | 1.57 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 13.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.90 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 15.6 |
| 48 | Possession % | 40 |
| 1.08 | xG | 1.49 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Sao Paulo | Metric | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.51 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.24 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 15.20 (better) | Total shots | 11.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 51.4 | Possession % | 60.4 (better) |
| 454 | Passes | 616 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.20 (better) | Fouls | 15.40 |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 0.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.40 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sao Paulo wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Fluminense wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.33
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Fluminense v Sao Paulo2–12026-05-16
- Fluminense v Sao Paulo6–02025-11-27
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense3–12025-07-27
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |