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Serie A predictions: matchweek 7 (16–19 October 2026)

Every Serie A match in matchweek 7 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 7: ten matches, played across 16–19 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is AS Roma, 64% to beat Genoa at home; the most evenly balanced game is Parma v Torino (Parma 33%, draw 31%, Torino 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Bologna v Inter, at 3.17; the tightest looks Parma v Torino, at 2.21.

Going into the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 16 points, with AS Roma third on 14. The bottom three are Parma (4), Fiorentina (4), Venezia (0).

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 2.87 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Frosinone v SassuoloFri 16 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Frosinone 54%, the draw 24% and Sassuolo 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Frosinone to win at 54%. Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from 6; Sassuolo are 11th on 8 points from 6. Frosinone have won three of their last five; Sassuolo have won two of their last five.

Venezia v NapoliSat 17 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Venezia 33%, the draw 27% and Napoli 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Napoli to win at 40%. Venezia are 20th on 0 points from 6; Napoli are 8th on 10 points from 6. Venezia have lost all of their last five; Napoli have won two of their last five.

Bologna v InterSat 17 Oct, 17:00

Our model makes Bologna 19%, the draw 22% and Inter 60%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Inter to win at 60%. Bologna are 14th on 5 points from 6; Inter are 1st on 16 points from 6. Bologna have won one of their last five; Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

AS Roma v GenoaSat 17 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes AS Roma 64%, the draw 21% and Genoa 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 64%. AS Roma are 3rd on 14 points from 6; Genoa are 17th on 4 points from 6. AS Roma are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Genoa have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between AS Roma wins, draws and Genoa wins.

Udinese v LecceSun 18 Oct, 11:30

Our model makes Udinese 48%, the draw 28% and Lecce 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Udinese are 15th on 4 points from 6; Lecce are 13th on 6 points from 6. Udinese have won one of their last five; Lecce have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Udinese wins, draws and Lecce wins.

Fiorentina v ComoSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Fiorentina 21%, the draw 24% and Como 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Como to win at 55%. Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points from 6; Como are 7th on 11 points from 6. Fiorentina have won one of their last five; Como have won three of their last five. Como have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

AC Milan v AtalantaSun 18 Oct, 17:00

Our model makes AC Milan 38%, the draw 30% and Atalanta 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. AC Milan are 5th on 12 points from 6; Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 6. AC Milan are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Atalanta have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Juventus v LazioSun 18 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Juventus 54%, the draw 27% and Lazio 19%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Juventus are 6th on 11 points from 6; Lazio are 2nd on 16 points from 6. Juventus have won two of their last five; Lazio are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Monza v CagliariMon 19 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Monza 43%, the draw 29% and Cagliari 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Monza are 16th on 4 points from 6; Cagliari are 4th on 13 points from 6. Monza have won one of their last five; Cagliari have won three of their last five.

Parma v TorinoMon 19 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Parma 33%, the draw 31% and Torino 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Parma are 18th on 4 points from 6; Torino are 12th on 7 points from 6. Parma have won one of their last five; Torino have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Parma wins, draws and Torino wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.