Udinese v Lecce

20th0–314th

10:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Udinese		Lecce
14	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	11
1	Corners	4
10	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	8
520	Passes	258
67%	Possession %	33%
0.54	xG	3.47

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Udinese 48%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.95

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.3%	2.31	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.7%	1.76	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.3%	4.47	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-4.0
Match result	Udinese	48.2%	2.07	1.92 Dafabet	52.1%	-3.8
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.58	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+0.2
Match result	Lecce	23.8%	4.21	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.1%	1.43	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.9%	3.35	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.7%	1.29	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.8%	2.09	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.2%	1.92	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Udinese favoured against Lecce

Our model makes Udinese 48% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 28% and Lecce at 24%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Udinese against 0.95 for Lecce — a substantial edge to Udinese on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Udinese and Lecce
Udinese		Lecce
11	Played	11
1-2-8	W-D-L	3-1-7
0.45	Pts / game	0.91
1.09	Goals for / game	1.09
2.27	Goals against / game	2.00
64%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	45%
9%	Clean sheets	18%
36%	Failed to score	36%
0-1-5	Home record	1-0-4
1-1-3	Away record	2-1-3
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Udinese · Lecce

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.1	Shots	13.9
4.4	Shots on target	5.3
5.8	Corners	5.1
1.25	Cards	1.91
10.1	Fouls	15.0
53	Possession %	42
1.15	xG	1.27
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	12.9
6.4	Shots on target	3.9
4.1	Corners	3.7
0.75	Cards	0.57
9.6	Fouls	9.9
47	Possession %	58
2.42	xG	1.55
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Udinese	Metric	Lecce
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	2.00
1.49 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.65
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
14.50 (better)	Total shots	8.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.75 (better)	Corners	3.40
43.5 (better)	Possession %	38.6
402 (better)	Passes	355
	Tackles
12.50 (better)	Fouls	12.60
1.50	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Udinese wins: 1
Draws: 0
Lecce wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Udinese v Lecce0–32026-10-18
Lecce v Udinese2–12026-02-08
Udinese v Lecce3–22025-10-25

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5