Parma v Torino

18th12th

18:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 38%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Torino 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.14

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Parma v Torino: too close to call

Our model makes Parma 33% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 31% and Torino at 36%. The goal projection is 1.07 for Parma against 1.14 for Torino — almost nothing to Torino on expected output. A combined 2.21 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Parma and Torino
Parma		Torino
6	Played	6
1-1-4	W-D-L	2-1-3
0.67	Pts / game	1.17
0.67	Goals for / game	1.17
1.67	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	67%
50%	BTTS	83%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	17%
1-1-1	Home record	1-0-2
0-0-3	Away record	1-1-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Parma · Torino

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.7	Shots	11.3
2.7	Shots on target	3.3
2.3	Corners	3.7
1.00	Cards	1.00
10.0	Fouls	7.7
40	Possession %	50
0.73	xG	1.49
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.0	Shots	13.3
6.0	Shots on target	2.3
6.3	Corners	4.0
1.33	Cards	1.00
11.7	Fouls	16.0
60	Possession %	50
2.06	xG	1.16
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Parma	Metric	Torino
0.80	Goals scored	0.80
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.73	Expected goals (xG)	0.96 (better)
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	2.80 (better)
8.40	Total shots	11.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	4.60
42.8	Possession %	56.4 (better)
387	Passes	488 (better)
	Tackles
11.00	Fouls	11.00
3.20	Offsides	0.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Parma wins: 1
Draws: 0
Torino wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Torino v Parma4–12026-03-13
Parma v Torino2–12025-09-29

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	+10	16	Inter won 4 of the last 5
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+7	16	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	+11	14	AS Roma won 3 of the last 5
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	+3	13	Cagliari won 3 of the last 5
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	12	AC Milan won 2 of the last 5
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	+4	11	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
7	Como	6	3	2	1	+3	11	Como won 3 of the last 5
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	+4	10	Napoli won 2 of the last 5
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	+2	10	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9	Atalanta won 2 of the last 5
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8	Sassuolo won 2 of the last 5
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7	Torino won 2 of the last 5
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5	Bologna won 1 of the last 5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4	Udinese won 1 of the last 5
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Monza won 1 of the last 5
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Genoa won 1 of the last 5
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Parma won 1 of the last 5
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0	Venezia won 0 of the last 5