AS Roma v Genoa

3rd2–013th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AS Roma		Genoa
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	3
10	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
622	Passes	323
66%	Possession %	34%
1.37	xG	0.49

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: AS Roma 64%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.07 – 0.88

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

AS Roma -0.5

1.44Betano · fair 1.32 · qualifies at 1.36+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back AS Roma -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.44 with Betano — AS Roma must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 64% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 83%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.32. The offered 1.44 implies only 69%, so the price is 8.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: AS Roma 2.07, Genoa 0.88.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AS Roma	64.4%	1.55	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+0.7
Match result	Draw	21.1%	4.75	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+2.9
Match result	Genoa	14.5%	6.88	10.00 Betfair	10.0%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.8%	1.25	1.29 BetVictor	77.5%	+2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.2%	4.95	4.55 Betano	22.0%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.5%	1.77	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.5%	2.30	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.1%	2.93	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.9%	1.52	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.6%	1.94	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.4%	2.07	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AS Roma favoured against Genoa

Our model makes AS Roma 64% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 21% and Genoa at 15%. The goal projection is 2.07 for AS Roma against 0.88 for Genoa — a commanding edge to AS Roma on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. AS Roma is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 1-0 10%; 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for AS Roma and Genoa
AS Roma		Genoa
11	Played	11
8-3-0	W-D-L	4-1-6
2.45	Pts / game	1.18
2.82	Goals for / game	1.00
0.91	Goals against / game	1.45
73%	Over 2.5	45%
45%	BTTS	55%
55%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	27%
5-1-0	Home record	3-1-3
3-2-0	Away record	1-0-3
W3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AS Roma · Genoa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	11.7
5.8	Shots on target	3.4
6.6	Corners	3.6
2.04	Cards	2.14
11.0	Fouls	10.3
55	Possession %	42
2.19	xG	0.94
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	13.3
4.8	Shots on target	4.0
3.8	Corners	5.1
1.38	Cards	2.14
8.5	Fouls	12.6
46	Possession %	58
1.64	xG	1.13
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AS Roma	Metric	Genoa
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
2.56 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.12
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
18.80 (better)	Total shots	16.75
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	7.00 (better)
56.8 (better)	Possession %	48.0
562 (better)	Passes	396
	Tackles
13.80	Fouls	11.00 (better)
3.60	Offsides	3.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AS Roma wins: 2
Draws: 0
Genoa wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

AS Roma v Genoa2–02026-10-17
Genoa v AS Roma2–12026-03-08
AS Roma v Genoa3–12025-12-29

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5