Fiorentina v Como

15th1–35th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fiorentina		Como
19	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	8
11	Corners	5
12	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	0
439	Passes	522
47%	Possession %	53%
2.11	xG	1.59

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Como 55%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.84

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fiorentina	20.8%	4.81	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-7.8
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.17	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-1.6
Match result	Como	55.2%	1.81	2.11 Dafabet	47.4%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.1%	1.26	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.9%	4.79	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.3%	1.81	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.7%	2.24	2.25 Betano	44.4%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.0%	3.03	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.0%	1.49	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.5%	1.80	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-8.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.5%	2.25	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	+2.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Como favoured against Fiorentina

Our model makes Fiorentina 21% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Como at 55%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Fiorentina against 1.84 for Como — a substantial edge to Como on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 6%

This season

Season records for Fiorentina and Como
Fiorentina		Como
11	Played	11
2-3-6	W-D-L	7-2-2
0.82	Pts / game	2.09
1.55	Goals for / game	1.64
2.27	Goals against / game	0.91
91%	Over 2.5	45%
82%	BTTS	55%
0%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	27%
0-3-3	Home record	3-1-0
2-0-3	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fiorentina · Como

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	18.4
4.6	Shots on target	5.4
5.1	Corners	6.5
2.57	Cards	1.38
12.6	Fouls	8.1
47	Possession %	62
1.53	xG	1.75
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	12.6
5.9	Shots on target	3.6
5.4	Corners	4.8
2.14	Cards	1.95
12.6	Fouls	11.0
53	Possession %	38
1.71	xG	1.26
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fiorentina	Metric	Como
2.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.99	Expected goals (xG)	2.29 (better)
	Big chances
6.00	Shots on target	7.20 (better)
15.20	Total shots	22.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	6.20 (better)
46.8	Possession %	59.6 (better)
433	Passes	580 (better)
	Tackles
11.40	Fouls	7.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fiorentina wins: 1
Draws: 0
Como wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Fiorentina v Como1–32026-10-18
Como v Fiorentina1–22026-02-14
Fiorentina v Como1–32026-01-27
Fiorentina v Como1–22025-09-21

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5