AC Milan v Atalanta

4th3–212th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Milan		Atalanta
11	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	2
3	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
602	Passes	460
56%	Possession %	44%
2.49	xG	1.71

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: AC Milan 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 1.08

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Draw

3.75Marathonbet · fair 3.60 · qualifies at 3.71+ · 0.37u

Why this price?

Back the draw at 3.75 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 28%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.60. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 4.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.37 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: AC Milan 1.20, Atalanta 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AC Milan	38.1%	2.62	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-14.2
Match result	Draw	30.0%	3.33	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	+5.6
Match result	Atalanta	31.9%	3.14	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	+11.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.3%	1.49	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-12.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.7%	3.06	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	+11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.9%	2.50	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-15.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.1%	1.67	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+13.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.7%	5.07	2.82 Betano	35.5%	-15.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.3%	1.25	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+13.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.0%	2.13	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-12.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.0%	1.89	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AC Milan v Atalanta: too close to call

Our model makes AC Milan 38% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 30% and Atalanta at 32%. The goal projection is 1.20 for AC Milan against 1.08 for Atalanta — a slight edge to AC Milan on expected output. A combined 2.28 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for AC Milan and Atalanta
AC Milan		Atalanta
11	Played	11
7-3-1	W-D-L	4-2-5
2.18	Pts / game	1.27
2.09	Goals for / game	1.55
1.18	Goals against / game	1.82
64%	Over 2.5	73%
73%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	18%
0%	Failed to score	18%
4-0-1	Home record	3-1-2
3-3-0	Away record	1-1-3
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Milan · Atalanta

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	15.7
4.6	Shots on target	6.3
2.6	Corners	5.0
1.86	Cards	1.45
9.6	Fouls	9.7
59	Possession %	48
1.81	xG	2.00
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.1	Shots	17.4
4.9	Shots on target	5.6
4.3	Corners	6.0
1.43	Cards	2.14
13.3	Fouls	9.0
41	Possession %	52
1.23	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Milan	Metric	Atalanta
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.13 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.83
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
12.40 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.20
60.8 (better)	Possession %	47.0
575 (better)	Passes	489
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
1.40	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Milan wins: 1
Draws: 1
Atalanta wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

AC Milan v Atalanta3–22026-10-18
AC Milan v Atalanta2–32026-05-10
Atalanta v AC Milan1–12025-10-28

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5