Bologna v Inter

8th1–32nd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bologna		Inter
11	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	6
8	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
367	Passes	683
35%	Possession %	65%
1.09	xG	3.22

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Inter 60%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.09 – 2.08

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Inter +0.25

1.45Bet365 · fair 1.30 · qualifies at 1.34+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Inter +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.45 with Bet365 — Inter starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 79% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 77%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.30. The offered 1.45 implies only 69%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bologna 1.09, Inter 2.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bologna	18.6%	5.37	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+2.0
Match result	Draw	21.6%	4.63	4.33 BetVictor	23.1%	-1.5
Match result	Inter	59.8%	1.67	1.65 William Hill	60.6%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.21	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.88	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.1%	2.55	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.9%	1.64	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.6%	1.71	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.4%	2.41	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter favoured against Bologna

Our model makes Bologna 19% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 22% and Inter at 60%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Bologna against 2.08 for Inter — a commanding edge to Inter on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for Bologna and Inter
Bologna		Inter
11	Played	11
5-2-4	W-D-L	9-1-1
1.55	Pts / game	2.55
1.45	Goals for / game	2.55
1.27	Goals against / game	1.18
55%	Over 2.5	73%
64%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	36%
27%	Failed to score	0%
1-2-2	Home record	6-0-0
4-0-2	Away record	3-1-1
W4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bologna · Inter

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	20.1
4.6	Shots on target	7.0
4.4	Corners	6.0
2.00	Cards	1.38
12.4	Fouls	11.1
46	Possession %	59
1.64	xG	2.57
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.6	Shots	9.4
3.6	Shots on target	3.3
4.8	Corners	2.1
2.42	Cards	1.63
15.0	Fouls	9.0
54	Possession %	41
1.55	xG	0.88
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bologna	Metric	Inter
0.60	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.41	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	8.00 (better)
13.40	Total shots	23.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	8.25 (better)
52.2	Possession %	61.0 (better)
485	Passes	569 (better)
	Tackles
14.60	Fouls	8.25 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bologna wins: 0
Draws: 2
Inter wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 100%

Bologna v Inter1–32026-10-17
Bologna v Inter3–32026-05-23
Inter v Bologna3–12026-01-04
Bologna v Inter1–12025-12-19

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5