Serie A · Review

Serie A matchweek 6 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Serie A result from matchweek 6 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 6 (12 October 2026), is complete: two matches, 7 goals (3.50 a game), two home wins, no draws and no away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in two of the two and both teams scored in two.

The result the model rated least likely was Torino's win in Torino v Udinese (2–1), which it had at 32%; the one it rated most likely was Atalanta's win in Atalanta v Venezia (3–1), at 41%.

After the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 16 points, with AS Roma third on 14. The bottom three are Parma (4), Fiorentina (4), Venezia (0).

Match by match

Atalanta 3–1 VeneziaMon 12 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Atalanta 41%, the draw 27% and Venezia 32%, so Atalanta winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.26–2.54: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Atalanta -0.75 at 1.82 — won.

Torino 2–1 UdineseMon 12 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Torino 32%, the draw 27% and Udinese 41%, with Udinese favoured; it put Torino winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.47–0.72: Torino created the better chances. The headline call, Udinese to win at 41%, did not come in. Pick published: Torino -0.5 at 2.35 — won.

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 2.87 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.