Monza v Cagliari

16th4th

16:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Monza 43%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.08

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Monza favoured against Cagliari

Our model makes Monza 43% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 29% and Cagliari at 29%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Monza against 1.08 for Cagliari — a clear edge to Monza on expected output. A combined 2.44 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Monza and Cagliari
Monza		Cagliari
6	Played	6
1-1-4	W-D-L	4-1-1
0.67	Pts / game	2.17
1.50	Goals for / game	1.00
2.50	Goals against / game	0.50
83%	Over 2.5	17%
100%	BTTS	33%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	17%
1-0-1	Home record	1-1-1
0-1-3	Away record	3-0-0
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Monza · Cagliari

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	4.5
6.0	Shots on target	2.0
6.5	Corners	1.0
3.50	Cards	1.00
11.0	Fouls	8.0
35	Possession %	32
1.71	xG	0.84
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.5	Shots	24.0
7.5	Shots on target	7.5
6.0	Corners	12.5
2.00	Cards	1.50
8.0	Fouls	9.0
66	Possession %	69
1.53	xG	2.05
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Monza	Metric	Cagliari
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
2.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
2.07 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.15
	Big chances
7.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
16.00 (better)	Total shots	9.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.33 (better)	Corners	3.40
43.3 (better)	Possession %	41.0
368	Passes	427 (better)
	Tackles
11.67	Fouls	8.20 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	+10	16	Inter won 4 of the last 5
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+7	16	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	+11	14	AS Roma won 3 of the last 5
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	+3	13	Cagliari won 3 of the last 5
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	12	AC Milan won 2 of the last 5
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	+4	11	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
7	Como	6	3	2	1	+3	11	Como won 3 of the last 5
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	+4	10	Napoli won 2 of the last 5
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	+2	10	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9	Atalanta won 2 of the last 5
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8	Sassuolo won 2 of the last 5
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7	Torino won 2 of the last 5
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5	Bologna won 1 of the last 5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4	Udinese won 1 of the last 5
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Monza won 1 of the last 5
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Genoa won 1 of the last 5
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4	Parma won 1 of the last 5
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0	Venezia won 0 of the last 5