UEFA Europa Conference League · Review
UEFA Europa Conference League league phase matchday 1 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every UEFA Europa Conference League result from league phase matchday 1 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
UEFA Europa Conference League, league phase matchday 1 (15 October 2026), is complete: 18 matches, 53 goals (2.94 a game), twelve home wins, four draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in ten of the 18 and both teams scored in twelve.
The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland (1–1), which it had at 24%; the one it rated most likely was Brighton's win in Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris (4–0), at 69%.
Match by match
CSKA Sofia 1–2 MonacoThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had CSKA Sofia 24%, the draw 24% and Monaco 52%, so Monaco winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Monaco to win at 52%, came in.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC MidtjyllandThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Egnatia Rrogozhinë 30%, the draw 24% and FC Midtjylland 46%, with FC Midtjylland favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, FC Midtjylland to win at 46%, did not come in.
FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had FC Lugano 51%, the draw 27% and FK Crvena Zvezda 23%, so FC Lugano winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, FC Lugano to win at 51%, came in.
Gent 1–0 AarhusThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Gent 44%, the draw 27% and Aarhus 29%, so Gent winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Gent to win at 44%, came in. Pick published: Gent -0.75 at 1.80 — half won.
HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 AjaxThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had HNK Hajduk Split 38%, the draw 24% and Ajax 38%, so HNK Hajduk Split winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in. Pick published: HNK Hajduk Split +0.75 at 2.42 — won.
KuPS 2–4 TrabzonsporThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had KuPS 42%, the draw 27% and Trabzonspor 31%, with KuPS favoured; it put Trabzonspor winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, KuPS to win at 42%, did not come in.
Mjallby AIF 2–0 Inter Club d'EscaldesThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Mjallby AIF 35%, the draw 27% and Inter Club d'Escaldes 37%, with Inter Club d'Escaldes favoured; it put Mjallby AIF winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Inter Club d'Escaldes to win at 37%, did not come in.
Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja LukaThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Panathinaikos 55%, the draw 23% and Borac Banja Luka 22%, so Panathinaikos winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Panathinaikos to win at 55%, came in.
Riga 1–1 Kairat AlmatyThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Riga 51%, the draw 27% and Kairat Almaty 22%, with Riga favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in. Pick published: Riga -0.25 at 1.70 — half lost.
Universitatea Craiova 1–1 GetafeThu 15 Oct, 17:45
Before kick-off the model had Universitatea Craiova 51%, the draw 29% and Getafe 20%, with Universitatea Craiova favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 64%, came in.
Atalanta 3–1 PafosThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Atalanta 42%, the draw 27% and Pafos 30%, so Atalanta winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Atalanta to win at 42%, came in.
Brann 2–1 Lincoln Red Imps FCThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Brann 60%, the draw 23% and Lincoln Red Imps FC 17%, so Brann winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Brann to win at 60%, came in.
Brighton 4–0 Kauno ŽalgirisThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Brighton 69%, the draw 19% and Kauno Žalgiris 12%, so Brighton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. The headline call, Brighton to win at 69%, came in.
FC Copenhagen 3–0 SC BragaThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had FC Copenhagen 44%, the draw 25% and SC Braga 31%, so FC Copenhagen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: FC Copenhagen -0.25 at 2.07 (free pick) — won.
Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 FC NordsjaellandThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Heart Of Midlothian 32%, the draw 26% and FC Nordsjaelland 42%, with FC Nordsjaelland favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.
SC Freiburg 3–2 FK JablonecThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had SC Freiburg 59%, the draw 23% and FK Jablonec 18%, so SC Freiburg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, SC Freiburg to win at 59%, came in.
St. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999Thu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had St. Truiden 65%, the draw 20% and FC Iberia 1999 15%, so St. Truiden winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-0, was the one that came. The headline call, St. Truiden to win at 65%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.05 — lost.
Twente 1–0 FC ThunThu 15 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Twente 62%, the draw 20% and FC Thun 18%, so Twente winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, Twente to win at 62%, came in.
The numbers this season
UEFA Europa Conference League has averaged 2.84 goals a game over 276 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 53%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
UEFA Europa Conference League18Prediction
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.