Union Berlin v SV Elversberg

16th1–07th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Union Berlin		SV Elversberg
19	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	3
14	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	7
326	Passes	452
43%	Possession %	57%
1.59	xG	0.28

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: SV Elversberg 49%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.57 – 2.08

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

2.62Bet365 · fair 2.42 · qualifies at 2.51+ · 1.29u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.62 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.42. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 8.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.29 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Union Berlin 1.57, SV Elversberg 2.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Union Berlin	28.8%	3.47	2.48 Dafabet	40.3%	-11.5
Match result	Draw	22.2%	4.51	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.8
Match result	SV Elversberg	49.0%	2.04	2.90 Bet365	34.5%	+14.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.4%	1.13	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.6%	8.60	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.5%	1.42	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.5%	3.39	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.4%	2.02	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+11.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.6%	1.98	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-13.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.7%	1.43	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.3%	3.31	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-6.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SV Elversberg favoured against Union Berlin

Our model makes Union Berlin 29% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and SV Elversberg at 49%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Union Berlin against 2.08 for SV Elversberg — a substantial edge to SV Elversberg on expected output. A combined 3.64 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Union Berlin and SV Elversberg
Union Berlin		SV Elversberg
9	Played	9
1-4-4	W-D-L	4-1-4
0.78	Pts / game	1.44
0.78	Goals for / game	1.89
2.33	Goals against / game	2.00
44%	Over 2.5	78%
44%	BTTS	67%
22%	Clean sheets	11%
44%	Failed to score	33%
1-3-1	Home record	3-0-1
0-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Union Berlin · SV Elversberg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.0	Shots	11.8
1.8	Shots on target	4.2
3.0	Corners	4.7
3.03	Cards	1.50
12.2	Fouls	12.0
37	Possession %	51
0.98	xG	1.41
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.8	Shots	17.2
5.8	Shots on target	4.8
5.5	Corners	7.3
1.87	Cards	2.37
10.7	Fouls	14.0
63	Possession %	49
1.42	xG	2.25
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Union Berlin	Metric	SV Elversberg
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
3.40	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.13	Expected goals (xG)	1.38 (better)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
11.75 (better)	Total shots	10.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	3.75 (better)
45.8 (better)	Possession %	42.3
372	Passes	379 (better)
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	11.50
2.50	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Union Berlin wins: 1
Draws: 0
SV Elversberg wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Union Berlin v SV Elversberg1–02026-10-10

Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21	Bayern München won 3 of the last 5
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21	Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19	SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18	RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13	SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12	VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12	1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12	Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12	Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10	FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10	SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9	FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9	1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7	Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6	FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4	Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5