SC Paderborn 07 v 
VfB Stuttgart
Match statistics
| SC Paderborn 07 | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 489 | Passes | 458 |
| 51% | Possession % | 49% |
| 1.91 | xG | 2.45 |
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 65%
- Over 3.5
- 43%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- VfB Stuttgart 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.48 – 1.87
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5SC Paderborn 07 +0.25
Why this price?
Back SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.85 with Bet365 — SC Paderborn 07 starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.71. The offered 2.85 implies only 35%, so the price is 5.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.69 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SC Paderborn 07 1.48, VfB Stuttgart 1.87.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SC Paderborn 07 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 5.10 Betano | 19.6% | +10.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.6% | 4.25 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +2.5 |
| Match result | VfB Stuttgart | 46.4% | 2.15 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -15.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.12 Bet365 | 89.3% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 14.7% | 6.81 | 9.00 BetVictor | 11.1% | +3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | +7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.44 William Hill | 69.4% | -3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 34.1% | 2.93 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | +1.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfB Stuttgart favoured against SC Paderborn 07
Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 30% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and VfB Stuttgart at 46%. The goal projection is 1.48 for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.87 for VfB Stuttgart — a clear edge to VfB Stuttgart on expected output. A combined 3.35 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| SC Paderborn 07 | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 2-4-3 | W-D-L | 4-0-5 |
| 1.11 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 0.89 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 1.22 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 44% | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| 33% | BTTS | 56% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 56% | Failed to score | 22% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 2-0-2 |
| 0-3-1 | Away record | 2-0-3 |
| D2 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Paderborn 07 · VfB Stuttgart
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.7 | Shots | 16.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.17 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.53 | xG | 1.99 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 19.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.37 | Cards | 3.33 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.80 | xG | 1.91 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| SC Paderborn 07 | Metric | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.00 | Shots on target | 4.33 (better) |
| 11.75 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 5.67 (better) |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 58.3 (better) |
| 446 | Passes | 560 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.75 (better) | Fouls | 10.00 |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 0.67 (better) |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SC Paderborn 07 wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- VfB Stuttgart wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0–22026-10-10
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |