RB Leipzig v 
Eintracht Frankfurt
Match statistics
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Shots | 18 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 434 | Passes | 486 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 4.10 | xG | 1.52 |
- Over 1.5
- 94%
- Over 2.5
- 83%
- Over 3.5
- 66%
- Both score
- 78%
- Model pick
- RB Leipzig 57%
- Likely score
- 2-1 7%
- Expected goals
- 2.72 – 1.79
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5RB Leipzig -0.75
Why this price?
Back RB Leipzig -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.62 with Bet365 — RB Leipzig must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.62 implies only 62%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: RB Leipzig 2.72, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 1.91 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 66% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.75. The offered 1.91 implies only 52%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: RB Leipzig 2.72, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | RB Leipzig | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -4.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 18.5% | 5.41 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 94.2% | 1.06 | 1.10 Bet365 | 90.9% | +3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 5.8% | 17.34 | 9.50 BetVictor | 10.5% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | +7.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 17.3% | 5.78 | 3.90 BetVictor | 25.6% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +10.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.93 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | -11.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +8.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | -8.4 |
| Match result | Eintracht Frankfurt | 24.2% | 4.13 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +4.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
RB Leipzig favoured against Eintracht Frankfurt
Our model makes RB Leipzig 57% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 24%. The goal projection is 2.72 for RB Leipzig against 1.79 for Eintracht Frankfurt — a commanding edge to RB Leipzig on expected output. A combined 4.50 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 83% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 7%
- 3-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-2 6%
- 1-1 6%
This season
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 6-0-3 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 3.00 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 2.22 |
| 78% | Over 2.5 | 78% |
| 33% | BTTS | 67% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 22% |
| 5-0-0 | Home record | 2-1-1 |
| 1-0-3 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| W3 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. RB Leipzig · Eintracht Frankfurt
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 13.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.17 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.58 | xG | 1.61 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.8 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.83 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.63 | xG | 1.99 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| RB Leipzig | Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored | 2.60 (better) |
| 1.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 2.22 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.98 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Shots on target | 4.75 |
| 17.80 (better) | Total shots | 13.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 4.75 |
| 56.4 (better) | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 542 (better) | Passes | 421 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.40 (better) | Fouls | 10.25 |
| 0.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- RB Leipzig wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Eintracht Frankfurt wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 5.33
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 33%
- RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt6–02026-10-10
- Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Leipzig1–32026-04-18
- RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt6–02025-12-06
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |