FSV Mainz 05 v 
Bayer Leverkusen
Match statistics
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 438 | Passes | 507 |
| 47% | Possession % | 53% |
| 2.91 | xG | 1.71 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Bayer Leverkusen 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.41 – 1.58
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5FSV Mainz 05 -0.5
Why this price?
Back FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.60 with Bet365 — FSV Mainz 05 must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.46. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.90 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.41, Bayer Leverkusen 1.58.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bayer Leverkusen | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.35 Bet365 | 42.6% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 5.14 | 6.00 Bet365 | 16.7% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | -10.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -8.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.4% | 2.54 | 3.00 Betfair | 33.3% | +6.0 |
| Match result | FSV Mainz 05 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.90 Betfair | 25.6% | -0.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayer Leverkusen favoured against FSV Mainz 05
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 34% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Bayer Leverkusen at 41%. The goal projection is 1.41 for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.58 for Bayer Leverkusen — a slight edge to Bayer Leverkusen on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 3-1-5 | W-D-L | 5-1-3 |
| 1.11 | Pts / game | 1.78 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 2.22 |
| 2.11 | Goals against / game | 1.89 |
| 78% | Over 2.5 | 89% |
| 67% | BTTS | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 0-1-4 | Home record | 3-0-1 |
| 3-0-1 | Away record | 2-1-2 |
| L3 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer Leverkusen
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.7 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 47 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.88 | xG | 1.57 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 17.0 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.37 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.95 | xG | 2.39 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| FSV Mainz 05 | Metric | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 (better) | Goals scored | 2.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 2.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.40 (better) | Shots on target | 6.60 |
| 20.60 | Total shots | 21.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 | Corners | 8.60 (better) |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 60.2 (better) |
| 477 | Passes | 571 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 (better) | Fouls | 13.60 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 1.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.75 (better) |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FSV Mainz 05 wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Bayer Leverkusen wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 5.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen3–42026-10-10
- Bayer Leverkusen v FSV Mainz 051–12026-02-28
- FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen3–42025-10-18
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |