FC Augsburg v 
Bayern München
Match statistics
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 30 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 286 | Passes | 649 |
| 30% | Possession % | 70% |
| 2.45 | xG | 5.10 |
- Over 1.5
- 93%
- Over 2.5
- 80%
- Over 3.5
- 62%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Bayern München 73%
- Likely score
- 1-3 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.25 – 3.03
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Under 3.5
Why this price?
Back under 3.5 goals at 3.00 with Bet365 — 3 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 35%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.86. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.62 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FC Augsburg 1.25, Bayern München 3.03.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FC Augsburg | 12.3% | 8.12 | 13.00 Bet365 | 7.7% | +4.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 14.9% | 6.71 | 9.50 Betfair | 10.5% | +4.4 |
| Match result | Bayern München | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.22 Bet365 | 82.0% | -9.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 93.0% | 1.07 | 1.04 Bet365 | 96.2% | -3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 7.0% | 14.28 | 15.00 Bet365 | 6.7% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | -5.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 20.0% | 5.00 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 3.25 Betfair | 30.8% | +7.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 31.8% | 3.15 | 2.90 William Hill | 34.5% | -2.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bayern München favoured against FC Augsburg
Our model makes FC Augsburg 12% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 15% and Bayern München at 73%. The goal projection is 1.25 for FC Augsburg against 3.03 for Bayern München — a commanding edge to Bayern München on expected output. A combined 4.28 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-3 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bayern München is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-3 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 0-3 6%
- 0-2 6%
- 1-4 6%
This season
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 2-3-4 | W-D-L | 6-3-0 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 2.33 |
| 2.22 | Goals for / game | 3.22 |
| 2.22 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 89% | Over 2.5 | 89% |
| 89% | BTTS | 78% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 1-3-1 | Home record | 3-1-0 |
| 1-0-3 | Away record | 3-2-0 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Augsburg · Bayern München
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.2 | Shots | 24.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 10.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.87 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 64 |
| 2.34 | xG | 3.75 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 17.0 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.37 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 9.7 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 52 | Possession % | 37 |
| 2.65 | xG | 1.17 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| FC Augsburg | Metric | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | Goals scored | 3.60 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.83 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.25 | Shots on target | 9.40 (better) |
| 14.00 | Total shots | 22.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.75 | Corners | 8.60 (better) |
| 39.8 | Possession % | 71.2 (better) |
| 372 | Passes | 771 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.75 (better) | Fouls | 9.20 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 | Yellow cards | 0.75 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FC Augsburg wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Bayern München wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- FC Augsburg v Bayern München2–22026-10-10
- Bayern München v FC Augsburg1–22026-01-24
- FC Augsburg v Bayern München2–32025-08-30
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |