Borussia Dortmund v 
Werder Bremen
Match statistics
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 749 | Passes | 295 |
| 72% | Possession % | 28% |
| 2.50 | xG | 1.19 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Borussia Dortmund 66%
- Likely score
- 2-0 11%
- Expected goals
- 2.22 – 0.93
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Borussia Dortmund -0.75
Why this price?
Back Borussia Dortmund -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.45 with Betano — Borussia Dortmund must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 86%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.31. The offered 1.45 implies only 69%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.22, Werder Bremen 0.93.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Borussia Dortmund | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -5.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.9% | 5.01 | 6.00 Dafabet | 16.7% | +3.3 |
| Match result | Werder Bremen | 13.9% | 7.18 | 9.00 Betano | 11.1% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.12 Betano | 89.3% | -6.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.2% | 5.80 | 7.50 BetVictor | 13.3% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -10.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | 3.20 Bet365 | 31.3% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 38.7% | 2.59 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -10.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +9.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.75 Betfair | 57.1% | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.30 William Hill | 43.5% | +2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Borussia Dortmund favoured against Werder Bremen
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund 66% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 20% and Werder Bremen at 14%. The goal projection is 2.22 for Borussia Dortmund against 0.93 for Werder Bremen — a commanding edge to Borussia Dortmund on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Borussia Dortmund is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 3-0 8%
This season
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 6-3-0 | W-D-L | 4-3-2 |
| 2.33 | Pts / game | 1.67 |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game | 1.89 |
| 0.78 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 56% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 44% | BTTS | 78% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 3-1-0 |
| 2-2-0 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Borussia Dortmund · Werder Bremen
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.5 | Shots | 17.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 7.2 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 9.2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.51 | xG | 1.92 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 13.5 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.83 | Cards | 1.17 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.75 | xG | 1.46 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Borussia Dortmund | Metric | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 2.20 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.99 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.40 | Shots on target | 6.80 (better) |
| 18.40 (better) | Total shots | 15.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Corners | 4.80 |
| 53.6 (better) | Possession % | 53.4 |
| 492 | Passes | 529 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 (better) | Fouls | 11.80 |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.20 (better) |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Borussia Dortmund wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Werder Bremen wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen2–22026-10-09
- Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0–22026-05-16
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen3–02026-01-13
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 | Bayern München won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 21 | Borussia Dortmund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 19 | SC Freiburg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 18 | RB Leipzig won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Werder Bremen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 | SV Elversberg won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 | VfB Stuttgart won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 12 | Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 | FSV Mainz 05 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | SC Paderborn 07 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | FC Augsburg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 | 1. FC Köln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 | Union Berlin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 | FC Schalke 04 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 of the last 5 |