1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5WLWWL9th2–3Hamburger SV won 3 of the last 5WLLWW11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
17
Shots
15
4
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
3
11
Fouls
16
1
Yellow cards
0
1
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
545
Passes
306
64%
Possession %
36%
1.09
xG
1.27
56%
22%
22%
1 · 1899 HoffenheimXHamburger SV · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
62%
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim 56%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.23
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
1899 Hoffenheim
56.3%
1.78
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-11.7
Match result
Draw
22.1%
4.52
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+3.6
Match result
Hamburger SV
21.6%
4.64
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
+7.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.18
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.3%
6.54
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
+1.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
64.1%
1.56
1.44 Betano
69.4%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
35.9%
2.78
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
+3.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
42.0%
2.38
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-8.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.0%
1.72
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.4%
1.60
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
+0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.6%
2.66
2.50 Betfair
40.0%
-2.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1899 Hoffenheim favoured against Hamburger SV
Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim 56% to win this Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Hamburger SV at 22%. The goal projection is 2.07 for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.23 for Hamburger SV — a substantial edge to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 3.30 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 8%
1-0 7%
3-1 7%
This season
Season records for 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
1899 Hoffenheim
Metric
Hamburger SV
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.83 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.91
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
19.40 (better)
Total shots
9.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
3.20
59.0 (better)
Possession %
42.0
507 (better)
Passes
378
—
Tackles
—
15.80
Fouls
13.80 (better)
2.25
Offsides
2.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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1899 Hoffenheim v 
Hamburger SV