Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4LDWD6th5–2Auckland won 1 of the last 4DDLW8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Western Sydney Wanderers
Auckland
14
Shots
9
6
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
6
9
Fouls
11
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
5
Offsides
1
479
Passes
275
62%
Possession %
38%
—
xG
—
24%
26%
50%
1 · Western Sydney WanderersXAuckland · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Auckland 50%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.65
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Western Sydney Wanderers
24.2%
4.14
2.65 Betano
37.7%
-13.6
Match result
Draw
25.6%
3.90
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-1.4
Match result
Auckland
50.2%
1.99
2.80 Bet365
35.7%
+14.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.31
1.28 Betano
78.1%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.8%
4.21
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-0.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.3%
1.95
1.85 Betano
54.1%
-2.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.7%
2.06
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
-0.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.2%
3.42
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.8%
1.41
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.9%
1.86
1.67 William Hill
59.9%
-6.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.1%
2.17
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
+2.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Auckland favoured against Western Sydney Wanderers
Our model makes Western Sydney Wanderers 24% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Auckland at 50%. The goal projection is 1.08 for Western Sydney Wanderers against 1.65 for Auckland — a substantial edge to Auckland on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
0-1 10%
1-2 10%
0-2 9%
0-0 7%
This season
Season records for Western Sydney Wanderers and Auckland
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Western Sydney Wanderers
Metric
Auckland
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.21
—
Big chances *
—
2.00
Shots on target
3.33 (better)
13.00 (better)
Total shots
9.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
3.00
55.0 (better)
Possession %
36.0
382 (better)
Passes
247
—
Tackles
—
14.00
Fouls
13.00 (better)
0.00 (better)
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
5.00
Yellow cards
3.00 (better)
—
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Western Sydney Wanderers v 
Auckland