Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4DWWW1st2–1Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4DDDL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory
9
Shots
5
4
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
7
8
Fouls
6
0
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
3
331
Passes
571
38%
Possession %
62%
—
xG
—
25%
23%
52%
1 · Wellington PhoenixXMelbourne Victory · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Melbourne Victory 52%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wellington Phoenix
25.1%
3.99
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-4.3
Match result
Draw
23.0%
4.34
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-3.3
Match result
Melbourne Victory
51.9%
1.93
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
+5.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.19
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
+2.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.1%
6.23
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-3.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.9%
1.59
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+4.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.1%
2.70
2.40 Betano
41.7%
-4.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.7%
2.45
2.62 Bet365
38.2%
+2.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.3%
1.69
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-4.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.9%
1.59
1.57 William Hill
63.7%
-0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.1%
2.69
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-2.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Melbourne Victory favoured against Wellington Phoenix
Our model makes Wellington Phoenix 25% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Melbourne Victory at 52%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Wellington Phoenix against 1.94 for Melbourne Victory — a substantial edge to Melbourne Victory on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 10%
0-2 7%
0-1 7%
2-1 6%
This season
Season records for Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wellington Phoenix
Metric
Melbourne Victory
1.00
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.37
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
3.40
Shots on target
—
12.60
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.60
Corners
—
46.8
Possession %
—
363
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
12.40
Fouls
—
1.40
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wellington Phoenix v 
Melbourne Victory