Wellington Phoenix v 
Central Coast Mariners
Match statistics
| Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 353 | Passes | 472 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 63%
- Over 3.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 65%
- Model pick
- Central Coast Mariners 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.59 – 1.64
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Wellington Phoenix -0.75
Why this price?
Back Wellington Phoenix -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.05 with Bet365 — Wellington Phoenix must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.84. The offered 2.05 implies only 49%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wellington Phoenix 1.59, Central Coast Mariners 1.64.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.70 Betano | 37.0% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -6.9 |
| Match result | Wellington Phoenix | 36.7% | 2.73 | 1.87 Dafabet | 53.5% | -16.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.4% | 4.11 | 4.05 Betano | 24.7% | -0.3 |
| Match result | Central Coast Mariners | 39.0% | 2.57 | 4.55 Betano | 22.0% | +17.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4.80 BetVictor | 20.8% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +3.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +4.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.38 BetVictor | 42.0% | -6.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners: too close to call
Our model makes Wellington Phoenix 37% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Central Coast Mariners at 39%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Wellington Phoenix against 1.64 for Central Coast Mariners — almost nothing to Central Coast Mariners on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 3-1-0 | W-D-L | 0-2-2 |
| 2.50 | Pts / game | 0.50 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 0.25 | Goals against / game | 2.25 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 25% | BTTS | 75% |
| 75% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-0-0 | Home record | 0-1-0 |
| 1-1-0 | Away record | 0-1-2 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wellington Phoenix · Central Coast Mariners
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.0 | Shots | 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 0.75 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 36 | Possession % | 53 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 10.5 | Shots | 13.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 8.3 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 65 | Possession % | 47 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Wellington Phoenix | Metric | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 12.60 (better) | Total shots | 12.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.60 (better) | Corners | 1.00 |
| 46.8 (better) | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 363 (better) | Passes | 342 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Wellington Phoenix wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Central Coast Mariners wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners2–02026-10-25
- Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners3–12025-12-21
- Central Coast Mariners v Wellington Phoenix1–12025-11-02
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3 |