VPS v HJK Helsinki

6th0–42nd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
VPS		HJK Helsinki
7	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	5
9	Fouls	5
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
472	Passes	521
50%	Possession %	50%
0.45	xG	4.47

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: HJK Helsinki 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.76

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

VPS +0.25

3.30Bet365 · fair 3.00 · qualifies at 3.10+ · 1.07u

Why this price?

Back VPS +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.30 with Bet365 — VPS starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.01. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: VPS 1.23, HJK Helsinki 1.76.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.1%	1.69	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.9%	2.44	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-4.6
Match result	VPS	26.2%	3.82	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+13.7
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	+6.7
Match result	HJK Helsinki	49.3%	2.03	1.95 Dafabet	51.3%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.5%	1.24	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.6%	5.12	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.4%	1.74	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.6%	2.35	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.0%	2.86	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-10.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.0%	1.54	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HJK Helsinki favoured against VPS

Our model makes VPS 26% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 25% and HJK Helsinki at 49%. The goal projection is 1.23 for VPS against 1.76 for HJK Helsinki — a substantial edge to HJK Helsinki on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for VPS and HJK Helsinki
VPS		HJK Helsinki
32	Played	32
11-7-14	W-D-L	17-8-7
1.25	Pts / game	1.84
1.00	Goals for / game	2.06
1.34	Goals against / game	1.22
38%	Over 2.5	66%
41%	BTTS	47%
28%	Clean sheets	38%
41%	Failed to score	19%
7-3-6	Home record	9-4-3
4-4-8	Away record	8-4-4
L2	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. VPS · HJK Helsinki

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.9	Shots	19.0
2.6	Shots on target	6.9
4.6	Corners	5.4
1.86	Cards	1.14
13.9	Fouls	9.9
53	Possession %	57
1.01	xG	3.32
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.4	Shots	10.7
5.0	Shots on target	3.4
4.0	Corners	4.6
1.14	Cards	3.14
10.4	Fouls	12.6
47	Possession %	43
1.72	xG	1.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VPS	Metric	HJK Helsinki
0.20	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
0.86	Expected goals (xG)	2.88 (better)
	Big chances
1.40	Shots on target	7.20 (better)
9.40	Total shots	17.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	4.40
54.2	Possession %	55.8 (better)
415	Passes	545 (better)
	Tackles
14.80	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.40	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

VPS wins: 1
Draws: 0
HJK Helsinki wins: 4
Goals / game: 3.60
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 40%

VPS v HJK Helsinki0–42026-11-02
HJK Helsinki v VPS6–02026-10-08
HJK Helsinki v VPS2–12026-07-18
VPS v HJK Helsinki2–12026-05-22
VPS v HJK Helsinki0–22025-07-05

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2