HJK Helsinki v VPS

2nd6–06th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
HJK Helsinki		VPS
21	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	6
8	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
462	Passes	371
46%	Possession %	54%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: HJK Helsinki 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.11

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

VPS

5.35Marathonbet · fair 4.82 · qualifies at 4.96+ · 0.64u

Why this price?

Back VPS to win at 5.35 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 25% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 18%; we judge it at 21%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 4.81. The offered 5.35 implies only 19%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.64 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: HJK Helsinki 1.66, VPS 1.11.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	HJK Helsinki	49.7%	2.01	1.60 Bet365	62.5%	-12.8
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	4.30 Dafabet	23.3%	+2.2
Match result	VPS	24.9%	4.02	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.1%	1.30	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.9%	4.36	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.5%	1.91	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.5%	2.10	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.3%	3.30	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.7%	1.43	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.0%	1.82	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.0%	2.22	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HJK Helsinki favoured against VPS

Our model makes HJK Helsinki 50% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 25% and VPS at 25%. The goal projection is 1.66 for HJK Helsinki against 1.11 for VPS — a substantial edge to HJK Helsinki on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for HJK Helsinki and VPS
HJK Helsinki		VPS
32	Played	32
17-8-7	W-D-L	11-7-14
1.84	Pts / game	1.25
2.06	Goals for / game	1.00
1.22	Goals against / game	1.34
66%	Over 2.5	38%
47%	BTTS	41%
38%	Clean sheets	28%
19%	Failed to score	41%
9-4-3	Home record	7-3-6
8-4-4	Away record	4-4-8
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. HJK Helsinki · VPS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.0	Shots	9.9
6.9	Shots on target	2.6
5.4	Corners	4.6
1.14	Cards	1.86
9.9	Fouls	13.9
57	Possession %	53
3.32	xG	1.01
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	13.4
3.4	Shots on target	5.0
4.6	Corners	4.0
3.14	Cards	1.14
12.6	Fouls	10.4
43	Possession %	47
1.02	xG	1.72
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HJK Helsinki	Metric	VPS
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
0.80	Goals conceded	0.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.67 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
15.00 (better)	Total shots	11.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.33	Corners	5.67 (better)
54.7 (better)	Possession %	50.0
513 (better)	Passes	352
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	16.67
2.67	Offsides	2.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.67 (better)	Yellow cards	4.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

HJK Helsinki wins: 4
Draws: 0
VPS wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.60
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 40%

VPS v HJK Helsinki0–42026-11-02
HJK Helsinki v VPS6–02026-10-08
HJK Helsinki v VPS2–12026-07-18
VPS v HJK Helsinki2–12026-05-22
VPS v HJK Helsinki0–22025-07-05

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2