Sydney v Adelaide United

2nd2–112th

04:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sydney		Adelaide United
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	4
12	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
437	Passes	484
48%	Possession %	52%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Sydney 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.8%	1.93	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-8.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.2%	2.07	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+6.2
Match result	Sydney	39.1%	2.56	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	28.1%	3.56	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+1.4
Match result	Adelaide United	32.8%	3.05	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.3%	1.38	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.7%	3.61	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-12.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.9%	1.85	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+8.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.6%	4.06	2.75 Betano	36.4%	-11.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.4%	1.33	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+8.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sydney v Adelaide United: too close to call

Our model makes Sydney 39% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Adelaide United at 33%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Sydney against 1.19 for Adelaide United — a slight edge to Sydney on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Sydney and Adelaide United
Sydney		Adelaide United
4	Played	3
2-1-1	W-D-L	0-1-2
1.75	Pts / game	0.33
1.75	Goals for / game	1.00
1.00	Goals against / game	2.67
75%	Over 2.5	100%
75%	BTTS	67%
25%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	33%
2-1-0	Home record	0-1-0
0-0-1	Away record	0-0-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sydney · Adelaide United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	15.0
3.5	Shots on target	4.7
3.8	Corners	6.0
2.50	Cards	2.00
13.3	Fouls	10.0
48	Possession %	58
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	12.3
3.8	Shots on target	5.3
4.0	Corners	4.0
1.75	Cards	3.67
11.8	Fouls	12.3
52	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sydney	Metric	Adelaide United
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
	Expected goals (xG)	1.39
	Big chances
1.00	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
9.00	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	7.00 (better)
45.0	Possession %	60.0 (better)
307	Passes	541 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
4.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sydney wins: 1
Draws: 0
Adelaide United wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

A-League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Wellington Phoenix	4	3	1	0	+6	10	Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4
2	Sydney	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Sydney won 2 of the last 4
3	Brisbane Roar	3	2	1	0	+2	7	Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3
4	Melbourne City	4	2	1	1	0	7	Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4
5	Perth Glory	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4
6	Western Sydney Wanderers	4	1	2	1	+2	5	Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4
7	Macarthur	4	1	2	1	0	5	Macarthur won 1 of the last 4
8	Auckland	4	1	2	1	-1	5	Auckland won 1 of the last 4
9	Melbourne Victory	4	0	3	1	-1	3	Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4
10	Newcastle Jets	4	0	2	2	-4	2	Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4
11	Central Coast Mariners	4	0	2	2	-5	2	Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4
12	Adelaide United	3	0	1	2	-5	1	Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3