Sunderland v Brighton

19th0–22nd

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sunderland		Brighton
12	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	5
8	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
5	Offsides	0
501	Passes	309
62%	Possession %	38%
0.68	xG	1.14

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Brighton 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.64

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Brighton

2.52Marathonbet · fair 2.28 · qualifies at 2.35+ · 1.70u

Why this price?

Back Brighton to win at 2.52 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.28. The offered 2.52 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.70 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sunderland 0.97, Brighton 1.64.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sunderland	21.5%	4.65	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-9.7
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.85	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-2.2
Match result	Brighton	52.5%	1.91	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+11.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.87	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.4%	2.07	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.6%	1.94	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.6%	3.76	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.4%	1.36	1.40 Betano	71.4%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.7%	1.97	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-6.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.3%	2.03	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brighton favoured against Sunderland

Our model makes Sunderland 22% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Brighton at 52%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Sunderland against 1.64 for Brighton — a substantial edge to Brighton on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sunderland and Brighton
Sunderland		Brighton
10	Played	10
2-2-6	W-D-L	7-1-2
0.80	Pts / game	2.20
0.80	Goals for / game	2.60
1.70	Goals against / game	0.70
30%	Over 2.5	50%
40%	BTTS	20%
30%	Clean sheets	70%
40%	Failed to score	10%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-0
0-1-4	Away record	3-0-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sunderland · Brighton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	15.2
3.3	Shots on target	4.7
4.2	Corners	4.8
1.90	Cards	2.87
10.8	Fouls	11.8
46	Possession %	52
1.60	xG	1.56
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	11.2
4.7	Shots on target	2.7
4.5	Corners	5.5
2.20	Cards	0.87
13.3	Fouls	9.8
54	Possession %	48
1.75	xG	1.02
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sunderland	Metric	Brighton
1.20	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
2.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.93
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
15.20	Total shots	18.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	5.00
47.8	Possession %	61.6 (better)
371	Passes	526 (better)
	Tackles
12.60 (better)	Fouls	13.40
2.75	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60 (better)	Yellow cards	3.50
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sunderland wins: 0
Draws: 1
Brighton wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Sunderland v Brighton0–22026-10-10
Sunderland v Brighton0–12026-03-14
Brighton v Sunderland0–02025-12-20

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5