Predicted Edge

Poland U18 v Uruguay U18

Poland U18Uruguay U18
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Poland U18 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPoland U1838.7%2.58———
Match resultDraw26.5%3.78———
Match resultUruguay U1834.8%2.87———
Total goalsOver 1.578.2%1.28———
Total goalsUnder 1.521.8%4.59———
Total goalsOver 2.553.9%1.85———
Total goalsUnder 2.546.1%2.17———
Total goalsOver 3.531.6%3.16———
Total goalsUnder 3.568.4%1.46———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.1%1.72———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.9%2.39———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Poland U18 v Uruguay U18: too close to call

Our model makes Poland U18 39% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 26% and Uruguay U18 at 35%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Poland U18 against 1.38 for Uruguay U18 — almost nothing to Poland U18 on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Poland U18 and Uruguay U18
Poland U18 Uruguay U18
—Played—
—W-D-L—
—Pts / game—
—Goals for / game—
—Goals against / game—
—Over 2.5—
—BTTS—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
—Home record—
—Away record—
—Streak—

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Poland U18 · Uruguay U18

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Poland U18MetricUruguay U18
2.00 (better)Goals scored0.80
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.40
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.