PK-35 v FF Jaro

13th1–111th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
PK-35		FF Jaro
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	5
9	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
302	Passes	425
46%	Possession %	54%
0.68	xG	1.31

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: PK-35 60%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.97 – 0.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	PK-35	60.0%	1.67	3.50 Betano	28.6%	+31.4
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-9.9
Match result	FF Jaro	17.7%	5.66	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-19.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.9%	1.25	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+11.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.1%	4.98	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-14.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.7%	1.76	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+14.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.3%	2.31	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-17.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.3%	2.92	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	+13.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.7%	1.52	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-16.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.84	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.19	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-8.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PK-35 favoured against FF Jaro

Our model makes PK-35 60% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 22% and FF Jaro at 18%. The goal projection is 1.97 for PK-35 against 0.98 for FF Jaro — a commanding edge to PK-35 on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 10%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for PK-35 and FF Jaro
PK-35		FF Jaro
2	Played	29
0-1-1	W-D-L	5-10-14
0.50	Pts / game	0.86
0.50	Goals for / game	0.83
1.00	Goals against / game	1.72
0%	Over 2.5	41%
50%	BTTS	48%
0%	Clean sheets	17%
50%	Failed to score	41%
0-1-0	Home record	4-6-4
0-0-1	Away record	1-4-10
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. PK-35 · FF Jaro

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	16.8
2.0	Shots on target	4.0
4.5	Corners	5.8
1.00	Cards	1.50
10.5	Fouls	10.0
46	Possession %	48
0.65	xG	1.42
2 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	15.3
4.0	Shots on target	3.0
4.0	Corners	5.5
1.50	Cards	1.50
10.5	Fouls	10.3
54	Possession %	52
1.26	xG	1.29
2 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PK-35	Metric	FF Jaro
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.83
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.40
	Total shots	13.80
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	6.00
	Possession %	41.8
	Passes	278
	Tackles
	Fouls	12.60
	Offsides	0.60
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.80
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

PK-35 wins: 0
Draws: 1
FF Jaro wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 50%

FF Jaro v PK-351–02026-10-25
PK-35 v FF Jaro1–12026-10-21

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HJK Helsinki	31	17	7	7	+27	58	HJK Helsinki won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter Turku	31	16	10	5	+14	58	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	31	14	11	6	+15	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	31	14	5	12	+1	47	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	31	11	10	10	+1	43	Gnistan won 0 of the last 5
6	VPS	31	11	7	13	-7	40	VPS won 1 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2