FF Jaro v PK-35

11th1–013th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FF Jaro		PK-35
15	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	4
12	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
388	Passes	365
54%	Possession %	46%
1.21	xG	0.61

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: PK-35 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 1.62

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-12.1
Match result	FF Jaro	27.8%	3.60	1.80 Dafabet	55.6%	-27.8
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.88	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	-1.6
Match result	PK-35	46.5%	2.15	5.00 Dafabet	20.0%	+26.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.7%	1.29	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+5.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.3%	4.49	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.4%	1.87	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+5.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.6%	2.15	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-11.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.1%	3.21	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+6.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.9%	1.45	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-10.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PK-35 favoured against FF Jaro

Our model makes FF Jaro 28% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 26% and PK-35 at 46%. The goal projection is 1.20 for FF Jaro against 1.62 for PK-35 — a clear edge to PK-35 on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for FF Jaro and PK-35
FF Jaro		PK-35
29	Played	2
5-10-14	W-D-L	0-1-1
0.86	Pts / game	0.50
0.83	Goals for / game	0.50
1.72	Goals against / game	1.00
41%	Over 2.5	0%
48%	BTTS	50%
17%	Clean sheets	0%
41%	Failed to score	50%
4-6-4	Home record	0-1-0
1-4-10	Away record	0-0-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FF Jaro · PK-35

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.8	Shots	11.0
4.0	Shots on target	2.0
5.8	Corners	4.5
1.50	Cards	1.00
10.0	Fouls	10.5
48	Possession %	46
1.42	xG	0.65
4 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	15.5
3.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.5	Corners	4.0
1.50	Cards	1.50
10.3	Fouls	10.5
52	Possession %	54
1.29	xG	1.26
4 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FF Jaro	Metric	PK-35
0.80	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.83	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target
13.80	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners
41.8	Possession %
278	Passes
	Tackles
12.60	Fouls
0.60	Offsides
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FF Jaro wins: 1
Draws: 1
PK-35 wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 50%

FF Jaro v PK-351–02026-10-25
PK-35 v FF Jaro1–12026-10-21

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HJK Helsinki	31	17	7	7	+27	58	HJK Helsinki won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter Turku	31	16	10	5	+14	58	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	31	14	11	6	+15	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	31	14	5	12	+1	47	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	31	11	10	10	+1	43	Gnistan won 0 of the last 5
6	VPS	31	11	7	13	-7	40	VPS won 1 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2