Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4WWLL5th2–1Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4LLDD10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Perth Glory
Newcastle Jets
12
Shots
17
3
Shots on target
6
5
Corners
6
15
Fouls
5
2
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
2
259
Passes
678
28%
Possession %
72%
—
xG
—
39%
22%
39%
1 · Perth GloryXNewcastle Jets · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
51%
Both score
72%
Model pick
Newcastle Jets 39%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Perth Glory
38.5%
2.60
2.95 Betano
33.9%
+4.6
Match result
Draw
22.4%
4.46
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
-2.6
Match result
Newcastle Jets
39.1%
2.56
2.75 Betfair
36.4%
+2.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.9%
1.12
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+2.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.1%
9.04
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-5.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
71.7%
1.39
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+5.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
28.3%
3.54
2.70 Betano
37.0%
-8.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
50.9%
1.96
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+5.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
49.1%
2.04
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-9.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
71.6%
1.40
1.45 Betano
69.0%
+2.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
28.4%
3.53
2.75 BetVictor
36.4%
-8.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets: too close to call
Our model makes Perth Glory 39% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Newcastle Jets at 39%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Perth Glory against 1.87 for Newcastle Jets — almost nothing to Newcastle Jets on expected output. A combined 3.72 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Perth Glory
Metric
Newcastle Jets
1.20
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
3.60
1.11
Expected goals (xG)
1.38 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
8.00
Total shots
10.20 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.00
Corners
5.60 (better)
46.0
Possession %
50.2 (better)
424
Passes
511 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
12.60 (better)
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Perth Glory v 
Newcastle Jets