Perth Glory v 
Adelaide United
Match statistics
| Perth Glory | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 297 | Passes | 575 |
| 35% | Possession % | 65% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Adelaide United 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 1.66
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Perth Glory -0.5
Why this price?
Back Perth Glory -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.60 with Betano — Perth Glory must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.34. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Perth Glory 1.45, Adelaide United 1.66.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Perth Glory | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | -4.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | -1.9 |
| Match result | Adelaide United | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.55 Bet365 | 39.2% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 4.50 Bet365 | 22.2% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.67 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.50 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | -4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.52 Betano | 65.8% | -3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -2.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Adelaide United favoured against Perth Glory
Our model makes Perth Glory 33% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Adelaide United at 42%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Perth Glory against 1.66 for Adelaide United — a slight edge to Adelaide United on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Perth Glory | Adelaide United | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 3 |
| 2-0-2 | W-D-L | 0-1-2 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 0.33 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game | 2.67 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 75% | BTTS | 67% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2-0-0 | Home record | 0-1-0 |
| 0-0-2 | Away record | 0-0-2 |
| W2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Perth Glory · Adelaide United
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.5 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 39 | Possession % | 58 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 13.5 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 3.67 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 61 | Possession % | 42 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Perth Glory | Metric | Adelaide United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 8.00 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.00 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 60.0 (better) |
| 424 | Passes | 541 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 (better) | Fouls | 15.00 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Perth Glory wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Adelaide United wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 0%
- Perth Glory v Adelaide United4–02026-11-01
- Adelaide United v Perth Glory4–02026-02-20
- Perth Glory v Adelaide United0–12025-12-20
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3 |