Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4LLDD10th0–3Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4DWWW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Newcastle Jets
Wellington Phoenix
13
Shots
8
5
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
2
8
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
1
709
Passes
188
79%
Possession %
21%
—
xG
—
49%
21%
30%
1 · Newcastle JetsXWellington Phoenix · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
55%
Both score
73%
Model pick
Newcastle Jets 49%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.72
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Newcastle Jets
48.6%
2.06
2.27 Betano
44.1%
+4.5
Match result
Draw
21.2%
4.72
4.00 Dafabet
25.0%
-3.8
Match result
Wellington Phoenix
30.2%
3.31
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
+1.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.6%
1.10
1.18 Betano
84.7%
+5.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
9.4%
10.66
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-8.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
75.0%
1.33
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+10.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
25.0%
4.00
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-14.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
55.1%
1.81
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+13.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
44.9%
2.23
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-16.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
73.4%
1.36
1.50 William Hill
66.7%
+6.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.6%
3.76
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-11.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Newcastle Jets favoured against Wellington Phoenix
Our model makes Newcastle Jets 49% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Wellington Phoenix at 30%. The goal projection is 2.20 for Newcastle Jets against 1.72 for Wellington Phoenix — a clear edge to Newcastle Jets on expected output. A combined 3.92 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 8%
1-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-2 6%
3-1 6%
This season
Season records for Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newcastle Jets
Metric
Wellington Phoenix
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
3.20
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
1.13
Expected goals (xG)
1.27 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.20
13.50 (better)
Total shots
11.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.50
Corners
7.80 (better)
51.0 (better)
Possession %
46.0
532 (better)
Passes
362
—
Tackles
—
13.25
Fouls
12.00 (better)
2.75
Offsides
1.80 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Newcastle Jets v 
Wellington Phoenix