Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4LLDD10th1–1Macarthur won 1 of the last 4LDDW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Newcastle Jets
Macarthur
13
Shots
7
3
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
5
16
Fouls
8
2
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
3
621
Passes
400
60%
Possession %
40%
1.52
xG
0.84
45%
21%
34%
1 · Newcastle JetsXMacarthur · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
77%
Over 3.5
57%
Both score
75%
Model pick
Newcastle Jets 45%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Newcastle Jets
45.0%
2.22
2.15 Betano
46.5%
-1.5
Match result
Draw
21.2%
4.72
4.00 BetVictor
25.0%
-3.8
Match result
Macarthur
33.9%
2.95
3.30 Bet365
30.3%
+3.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.4%
1.09
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+5.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.6%
11.61
6.50 Betfair
15.4%
-6.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.6%
1.31
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+9.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
23.4%
4.27
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-13.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
57.1%
1.75
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+12.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
42.9%
2.33
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-15.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
75.1%
1.33
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+5.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
24.9%
4.02
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
-9.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Newcastle Jets favoured against Macarthur
Our model makes Newcastle Jets 45% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Macarthur at 34%. The goal projection is 2.16 for Newcastle Jets against 1.87 for Macarthur — a clear edge to Newcastle Jets on expected output. A combined 4.03 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Newcastle Jets
Metric
Macarthur
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
3.00
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
0.95
Expected goals (xG)
1.60 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
4.67 (better)
11.50
Total shots
17.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
46.8
Possession %
48.7 (better)
499 (better)
Passes
381
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
10.33 (better)
2.25
Offsides
1.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.67
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Newcastle Jets v 
Macarthur