Melbourne Victory v 
Melbourne City
Match statistics
| Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 472 | Passes | 483 |
| 49% | Possession % | 51% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Over 3.5
- 28%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Melbourne Victory 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 1.28
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Melbourne Victory -0.5
Why this price?
Back Melbourne Victory -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Betano — Melbourne Victory must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Melbourne Victory 1.38, Melbourne City 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Melbourne Victory | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.2% | 3.67 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | +0.6 |
| Match result | Melbourne City | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.88 BetVictor | 34.7% | -0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -5.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.4% | 2.21 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +1.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City: too close to call
Our model makes Melbourne Victory 39% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Melbourne City at 34%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Melbourne Victory against 1.28 for Melbourne City — a slight edge to Melbourne Victory on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 0-3-1 | W-D-L | 2-1-1 |
| 0.75 | Pts / game | 1.75 |
| 1.25 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-2-0 | Home record | 2-0-0 |
| 0-1-1 | Away record | 0-1-1 |
| D3 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Melbourne Victory · Melbourne City
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 8.3 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 49 | Possession % | 47 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 13.8 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.75 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 53 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Melbourne Victory | Metric | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 18.00 (better) | Total shots | 17.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.00 (better) |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 53.0 (better) |
| 437 | Passes | 518 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 (better) | Fouls | 16.00 |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Melbourne Victory wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Melbourne City wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.25
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 50%
- Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City1–12026-10-24
- Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory1–32026-02-21
- Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory0–12025-12-20
- Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City0–22025-11-08
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 10 | Wellington Phoenix won 3 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Sydney | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Sydney won 2 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | Brisbane Roar won 2 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Melbourne City won 2 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Perth Glory won 2 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 5 | Western Sydney Wanderers won 1 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Macarthur won 1 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Auckland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | Auckland won 1 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Central Coast Mariners | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 | Adelaide United won 0 of the last 3 |