Melbourne Victory won 0 of the last 4DDDL9th1–1Central Coast Mariners won 0 of the last 4LDLD11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Melbourne Victory
Central Coast Mariners
8
Shots
11
4
Shots on target
7
6
Corners
2
8
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
1
344
Passes
515
41%
Possession %
59%
—
xG
—
50%
24%
26%
1 · Melbourne VictoryXCentral Coast Mariners · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Melbourne Victory 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.0%
2.50
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.7%
2.65
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-4.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.3%
1.60
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.0%
1.64
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.0%
2.56
2.20 Betano
45.5%
-6.5
Match result
Melbourne Victory
50.0%
2.00
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-15.3
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.18
5.20 Betano
19.2%
+4.7
Match result
Central Coast Mariners
26.1%
3.84
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+13.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.22
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-2.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.9%
5.60
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.0%
1.67
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-4.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Melbourne Victory favoured against Central Coast Mariners
Our model makes Melbourne Victory 50% to win this A-League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Central Coast Mariners at 26%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Melbourne Victory against 1.27 for Central Coast Mariners — a substantial edge to Melbourne Victory on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 8%
2-0 8%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Melbourne Victory
Metric
Central Coast Mariners
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.40
1.43
Expected goals (xG)
2.74 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
13.50
Total shots
14.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.25 (better)
Corners
2.00
51.3 (better)
Possession %
41.0
479 (better)
Passes
376
—
Tackles
—
9.50 (better)
Fouls
11.00
1.75 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Melbourne Victory v 
Central Coast Mariners